Redistricting war underscores growing power of state legislatures
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(The Hill) – The brewing war over redistricting is underscoring the increasing importance of state legislatures heading into the midterms. 

Texas Republicans presented a new set of proposed House district boundaries on Wednesday, aiming to create five additional districts favorable to Republicans ahead of 2026. Legislators in states such as New York and Maryland are similarly beginning to take action independently amid the back-and-forth of redistricting.

The ongoing changes in congressional district boundaries are casting renewed attention on state legislatures’ power to influence federal politics, although some experts suggest that national donors still need to pay more attention to local elections.

“Local races and state House and Senate races have always been important,” stated Republican strategist Jimmy Keady, who has experience with state legislative campaigns.

“They’re becoming even more critical over time, as they now directly impact federal-level representation. The savvy candidates are discussing this,” he continued.

Texas Republicans have finally released their proposal for a new House map, which will significantly affect lawmakers representing regions around Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, Houston, and the southern border. Currently, the Texas GOP holds 25 seats, while Democrats have 12. One seat, held by the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Texas), is awaiting a replacement in a November special election.

The proposed map would introduce five House seats that would have supported President Trump by a wide margin, raising the likelihood that Republicans could expand their majority to 30 House members within the congressional delegation.

While the map is not set in stone, the larger redistricting process playing out in the Lone Star State has prompted other states — both red and blue — to consider doing mid-decade redistricting in response. 

More importantly, the broader battle over redrawing House maps is underscoring that state legislative elections can impact issues of national importance, including federal races.  

Mandara Meyers, executive director of The States Project, noted how Democrats narrowly lost key state House races in their bid to flip nine seats to gain a Democratic majority in the lower chamber in 2020. 

“So little attention is paid to these state legislative races, and so few votes can make a difference, not just in winning or losing a single election, but in control of an entire legislative chamber,” she said.

To be sure, state legislatures have been receiving growing attention for some time as they’ve become the epicenter over battles on issues like election certification, school choice and abortion access.  

While Republicans have been focused on state legislative races — particularly during the 2010 cycle with their REDMAP program, which saw key GOP gains down ballot in state houses — Democrats have struggled to match their Republican counterparts in terms of attention and fundraising to these critical races. 

Even though Democrats have started to outperform in special elections, including in states like Alabama and Iowa, several Democratic-aligned groups focused on state legislative elections said they’ve heard little interest from donors about the races, even amid the redistricting battle. 

“A little bit,” Forward Majority CEO Leslie Martes told The Hill when asked if she had been hearing more from donors who were more interested in contributing given the redistricting news. 

“One of our problems is that state legislative resources are further down the list for donors, that they want to fund federal work first,” she said, noting that “the lack of dedicated funders for this work” is a problem. 

Mandara Meyers, executive director of The States Project, suggested a similar dynamic was playing out with her group. 

“When we look at the issues that impact people’s daily lives, we believe state legislators are the most important policymakers in the country, and yet again, much of the focus from donors, from the media, tends to be at the national level,” she said. “So we are not seeing the kind of shift that we would like to see towards the importance of states.” 

In a memo released earlier this month by Heather Williams, the president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC), she pointed out that there would be consequences for the party if Democrats continued to prioritize federal races at the expense of down-ballot ones.  

She specifically pointed to redistricting as one reason why members of the party needed to start paying attention to state legislative races, noting “Democrats are still digging themselves out of the hole we found ourselves in after the GOP executed their $30 million REDMAP strategy that gained them 20 legislative chamber majorities and the ability to unilaterally draw over 340 congressional districts.” 

“To have a shot at winning and maintaining a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives moving forward, Democrats must reassess our failed federal-first strategy and get serious about winning state legislatures ahead of redistricting — not just in the final months of 2030,” she said, “but starting now.” 

Some Republican groups are similarly invoking redistricting as reason for their party to continue paying attention to the key down ballot elections. 

“The only way to halt the Democrats’ relentless efforts to manipulate district lines is to win state legislative races cycle after cycle,” said Mason Di Palma, spokesman for the Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC), in a statement, knocking Democrats for both advocating for redistricting commissions while also pushing for new map lines mid-decade in response to Texas. 

Despite the attention redistricting has received nationally, that issue isn’t necessarily playing out in all states. Redistricting is particularly tricky for more evenly divided legislatures like Minnesota and Pennsylvania. 

A Minnesota Senate Republican spokesperson told The Hill in an email that they couldn’t “comment on any campaign activity, including donor conversations” but noted of the state’s maps that they “have not been contested or discussed as needing change.” 

The Minnesota House has a 67-66 edge, with Democrats looking to fill a vacancy after the assassination of former House DFL Leader Melissa Hortman. The state House has a power-sharing agreement between the two parties but a Republican speaker. The state Senate has two vacancies right now but has a slight 33-32 Democratic edge. 

Pennsylvania Senate Democratic Leader Jay Costa (D) similarly told The Hill that “it’s not being discussed as much” on the legislative side. The state Senate has a 27-23 GOP edge while Democrats hold a narrow 102-101 majority in the state House. 

“The bigger issue is holding onto the majority,” he said, referring to the state Supreme Court majority and its retention races this year, “and making sure Gov. Shapiro gets reelected, which I think he’s the ultimate backstop in that regard on redistricting.” 

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