A recent study unveiled on Friday forecasts that President Trump’s immigration policies could lead to a substantial reduction in the U.S. workforce, estimating a decrease of 15 million workers within the next ten years.
The National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) detailed in their report that the Trump administration’s stance on both illegal and legal immigration is expected to cut the projected workforce by 6.8 million by 2028 and by 15.7 million by 2035. This reduction is anticipated to lower the annual economic growth rate by nearly a third, thereby potentially impacting the living standards in the United States.
The report further cautions that these immigration policies may significantly increase the federal debt by $1.74 trillion and reduce the gross domestic product (GDP) by $12.1 trillion over the coming decade.
Among the changes driving these projections are the suspension and reduction of refugee admissions, the implementation of a travel ban enacted in 2025, the termination of Temporary Protected Status and humanitarian parole programs, and restrictions on international students working in the U.S. post-graduation through Optional Practical Training and STEM OPT programs. Additionally, anticipated rules like the public charge rule are expected to further limit legal immigration.
The researchers also noted that their analysis does not account for the potential adverse economic effects of limiting U.S. companies’ access to high-skilled foreign workers through regulatory changes, which could impede productivity growth.
The Hill has reached out to the White House for their response on these findings.
The Trump administration has set a goal of removing at least 1 million immigrants in the country illegally per year. The Labor Department recently warned that the Trump administration’s mass deportation efforts could drive up food prices due to a dwindling workforce in the agriculture industry.
Taxpayer funds are currently being used to bolster border and immigration enforcement, including the White House’s $45 billion investment to increase Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detention capacity.
The NFAP said as expenditures rise, so will the country’s debt.
“Increasing the federal debt will reduce living standards in the United States by leading to higher levels of taxation, inflation and interest rates than without such debt,” researchers wrote.
“Labor force growth is a crucial part of the economic growth that advances a country’s living standards and facilitates the financing of existing debts and obligations. With the U.S.-born population aging and growing at a slower rate, immigrants have become an essential part of American labor force growth,” they added.
