White House, GOP leaders bet Trump bill is too big to fail
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Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and the White House are betting that the bill full of President Trump’s priorities is so big and so “beautiful,” at least in the eyes of the president that it cannot fail.

House GOP leaders are charging ahead with plans to vote on the legislation, officially titled the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, as soon as Wednesday night, even as hard-line conservatives continue to withhold support over concerns about deficit spending a posture that could result in an embarrassing setback if holdouts sink the package.

The White House is pushing for the House to hold a vote on the legislation Wednesday evening, an administration official told The Hill.

The long impasse has forced House Rules Committee members into a purgatorial cycle: They’ve been debating the package for more than 15 hours, but they can’t wrap up because there’s no final bill to vote on as lawmakers haggle over last-minute tweaks.

The strategy, to be sure, is a gamble: A failed vote would deal a blow to Johnson and Trump and risks sapping the wind from their sails heading into a long Memorial Day recess. The Speaker and a smattering of other Republican leaders, nonetheless, look ready to ante up, repeating the same message throughout the week: “Failure is not an option.”

“We have to get this done,” Johnson said Tuesday. “I told President Trump on the campaign trail that I believed he could be the most consequential president of the modern era and arguably, maybe one of the most in all of U.S. history, maybe top two or three. I think this is the way we deliver that.”

The conservative holdouts have voiced a series of demands as a condition of winning their support, namely speeding up elimination of the green energy tax credits Democrats enacted in 2022 and further limiting size and scope of Medicaid spending. Adding to the pressure for the hard-liners is that blue-state moderates on the other ideological end of the conference secured a deal on raising the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap on Tuesday marking a major breakthrough for leaders to secure support for the bill but making an expensive policy that conservatives say should be offset with more cuts.

While the White House and GOP lawmakers have agreed to move up the start date for new Medicaid work requirements for able-bodied adults from 2029 to December 2026, hard-liners are eyeing even bigger reforms that may make other Republicans balk, such as further limiting the provider tax mechanism that states use to extract more federal matching dollars.

The changes will be laid out in a manager’s amendment, which lawmakers are waiting for Johnson to release.

But by packaging the controversial proposals with an enormous list of provisions supported by the conservatives including broad tax cuts, enhanced oil production and tougher immigration rules Trump and GOP leaders are all but daring the budget hard-liners to vote against the massive package over concerns with a sliver of it.

Even if the vote fails, it could be a strategic move by identifying those willing to defy the president to leadership and to the public as leaders work to lock in support.

On Tuesday, Trump warned that he would deem any GOP lawmaker who opposed the package “a fool,” suggesting he would back primary opponents in those cases. And on Wednesday, the White House issued a formal statement amplifying the warning. 

“President Trump is committed to keeping his promises, and failure to pass this bill would be the ultimate betrayal,” the White House wrote in a statement of administration policy.

Trump was expected to deliver that message Wednesday afternoon, when he huddled with Johnson, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) and members of the conservative House Freedom Caucus at the White House to firm up an agreement to unlock support for the package and get it over the finish line by Memorial Day.

There were, however, some logistical disagreements.

Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.), the chair of the Freedom Caucus, told reporters Wednesday that the group was working with the White House on a deal that, if included in the bill, would win over its support a significant development that could set the stage for GOP success.

A White House official, however, rejected that characterization, telling The Hill the Freedom Caucus did not secure a deal but instead received a menu of policy options the Trump administration would not oppose if they could garner enough support in the House to pass.

The right flank’s push for additional changes is sparking frustrations among centrist Republicans, who see the campaign as a disingenuous effort since the Trump agenda bill already hits the minimum amount of cuts demanded in the budget resolution. All 11 committees surpassed their targets, according to statistics from the Congressional Budget Office, leading many moderates to believe the matter should be a done deal.

“Don’t move the goal post,” Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) said last week. “If you move the goal post that would be very damaging because we’ve all played by good faith to make this happen.”

One of the GOP critics, Rep. Thomas Massie (Ky.), meanwhile, has said the GOP bill is not too big to fail, but too big to pass because it will inflate deficit spending in the name of reining it in. 

Trump singled out Massie during his trip to the Capitol, calling him a “grandstander.” But Massie dismissed the criticism, saying no amount of pressure from the president or anyone else will convince him to support the bill.

“It’s not consequential to my vote,” Massie said. “Whether he endorses me or attacks me, it doesn’t change the facts of what’s in the bill.” 

Democrats, meanwhile, agree that the legislation is gigantic, but they decry what they see as ugly effects that threaten the well-being of low-income individuals. 

Millions are projected to lose health insurance as a result of reforms to Medicaid. And for the first time, it requires states to share some of the cost of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits, risking that states reduce the number of those eligible to receive benefits.

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