Topline
Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) became the second Republican to publicly oppose holding a vote this close to the election on President Trump’s forthcoming nominee to replace the late Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg – and she may not be the last.
WASHINGTON, DC – FEBRUARY 05: Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) walks from the Senate subway to the … [+]
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Key Facts
Republicans have a majority of 53 seats, with Vice President Mike Pence as the tie-breaker, meaning Senate Majority Mitch McConnell – who has vowed to hold a vote – only has room for three defections within their ranks.
In a statement on Sunday, Murkowski said she would stick by her position that a vacancy not be filled on the court so close to election day, citing her opposition to filling the late Justice Antonin Scalia’s seat in 2016 and stating “I believe the same standard must apply.”
The announcement comes after Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) offered a slightly more tempered statement on Saturday that she has “no objections” to considering the credentials of a nominee, but that she believes the appointment “should be made by the President who is elected on Nov. 3” – though neither Murkowski nor Collins has ruled out voting to confirm a nominee if a vote came to the floor during the lame duck session.
All eyes now turn to a handful of Republicans best suited to break with Trump and McConnell (R-Ky.), most notably Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), a frequent Trump critic who voted to convict him for abuse of power in February.
Other potential, though less likely, defectors include Sen. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.), who is the significant underdog for reelection in his increasingly blue state in November but who said Saturday that there should be time to mourn Ginsburg “before the politics begin.”
There is a group of senators who often balk privately at Trump’s many excesses and personal conduct who may seek to preserve the norms governing Supreme Court appointments, with Politico citing retiring Sens. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.) and Pat Roberts (R-Kan.) as two such examples.
Key Background
Trump has had a contentious relationship with Murkowski in recent years, vowing in June to campaign against her after she said she was “struggling” with whether to vote for him in November. Murkowski cast one of the pivotal votes against the GOP bill to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act in 2017 and voted against confirming now-Justice Brett Kavanaugh, though she notably voted to confirm Justices Neil Gorsuch
Crucial Quote
“No thanks!” Trump tweeted Sunday morning – just hours before Murkowski’s announcement – in response to a tweet from the Alaska Chamber of Commerce announcing a town hall forum with Murkowski. He also taunted Collins at a rally on Saturday for coming out against a vote.
Surprising Fact
As many as 17 Republican senators said at one time or another that they would oppose confirming a nominee this year, though several have already switched their positions including Senate Judiciary Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.).
Big Number
44. That’s how many days there are until the election, while the average Supreme Court nomination since 1975 has taken 69 days. However, Republicans likely have the ability to rush through a nominee before the election, and even if they do not, McConnell has not ruled out confirming one during the lame duck period.
Chief Critic
Democrats have vowed to do everything in their power to prevent Trump from confirming a nominee. “We have arrows in our quiver,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Sunday, replying “we have our options” when asked if she would launch renewed impeachment proceedings against Trump to stymie his efforts.
What To Watch For
Trump is expected to make his announcement in a matter of days and has committed to selecting a woman. The candidates reportedly atop the list is Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals Judge Amy Coney Barrett, a devout Catholic and abortion opponent with scant judicial experience, having been confirmed to the Seventh Circuit in 2017. Also in consideration is Eleventh Circuit Judge Barbara Lagoa, who has considerably more judicial experience than Coney Barrett but may raise issues for senators demanding a nominee with a hardline conservative stance on Roe v. Wade.
