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EXCLUSIVE: “Presales just suddenly popped this week,” an exhibitor remarked today at CinemaCon about the potential mushrooming forecast for Warner Bros/Legendary‘s A Minecraft Movie.
Get excited. At a time when the domestic box office this year is -11% behind 2024, and on a day when President Donald Trump has just turned the economy upside with global tariffs, the Burbank, CA lot is looking at a big hit this weekend in A Minecraft Movie. Previews tonight per sources are around $7M+ after starting at 3PM. Conservative projections have risen to $75M+, but everyone is talking crazy forecasts right now because it’s been so long since the industry had a box office hit. Only one weekend to date in 2025 exceeded $100M for all titles, Feb 14-16 ($144M), which was when Captain America: Brave New World posted a $88.8M 3-day, $100M 4-day.
At its current level in regards to previews, the Jared Hess directed, Jason Momoa, Jack Black, Danielle Brooks and Jennifer Coolidge starring movie is higher than all previous Sonic the Hedgehog movies (Sonic one was $3M, part 2 was $5M and Sonic 3 was $6.5M). Sonic the Hedgehog 3‘s previews repped 26% of its $25.4M Friday which turned into a $60.1M opening, but that was leading into Christmas. A Minecraft Movie‘s previews are currently under the $10.3M of Universal/Blumhouse’s Five Nights at Freddy’s from October 2023. That figured repped 26% of its first Friday, that being $39.6M, which turned into an $80M opening. Working in Minecraft Movie‘s favor is its massive fanbase; the Mojang Studios title counting 300 million copies sold and nearly 140M monthly active players. It’s a videogame loved by generations ala Super Mario Bros (which didn’t have previews) and Five Nights at Freddy’s.
Reviews for A Minecraft Movie stand at 51% Rotten, but this fan-fave feature take of a videogame is critic proof. Five Nights at Freddy’s was 32% Rotten with critics and 86% on the popcorn meter with an A- CinemaScore.
Warner Bros didn’t return request for comment regarding our forecasts tonight.