There was jubilation in Israel on Monday at the release of all the surviving hostages. But the journey to a long-term peace is fraught with pitfalls, says Middle East expert Mark Almond. Here he highlights 14 flashpoints that could derail Trump’s grand vision.

1) Return of the bodies

One of the conditions of the peace deal is that Hamas hand over the remains of all the hostages who died – or were murdered – during the fighting.

But this is easier said than done. Many bodies are buried beneath the rubble of buildings destroyed after two years of bombing, and separating the corpses of hostages from other people’s remains will not be easy.

However, if all the bodies are not handed over for a proper burial, the suspicion will remain that Hamas and other hostage-holding jihadi groups are keeping them back because they fear they will reveal that the victims were tortured to death or executed rather than being ‘collateral damage’ of bombing raids.

2) Failure to disarm

Disarming Hamas was one of Israel’s key demands but, within hours of the declaration of the ceasefire deal, the Palestinian terrorists had summoned 7,000 fighters onto the streets to act as an armed police force. Donald Trump hinted he could accept a temporary law-and-order role for Hamas to fill the power vacuum in Gaza – but the Israelis view any Hamas militants with guns as a threat.

3) Gazan civil war

Brutal infighting plagues Gaza to this day. While Hamas may have been the dominant force for years, its authority is undermined by other armed groups such as the Doghmush clan – believed to have hundreds of fighters.

This group and other warlord-led gangs are denounced as criminals and Israeli agents by Hamas but remain formidable foes. In a bid to impose its authority last weekend, Hamas deployed as many as 2,000 of its fighters against the Doghmush clan, which it sees as one of its main rivals in the Strip, reportedly killing 32 and arresting and injuring dozens more.

4) Hamas return

Even if the scheduled withdrawal of the Israeli army under the Trump plan goes ahead, it is by no means certain that Hamas will keep its promises. The last time the Israelis withdrew from the Strip, in 2005, Hamas staged an armed takeover. After suppressing local Palestinian rivals, such as The Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), with brutal efficiency, they began a wave of rocket attacks on southern Israel.

Masked members of Hamas. The last time the Israelis withdrew from the Strip, in 2005, the terrorist group staged an armed takeover

5) Toothless peacekeepers

The plan is for international peacekeepers to prevent Hamas rearming and provide security for the people of Gaza. But will they and their governments be willing to take casualties, especially as the Americans insist they won’t put any of their boots on the ground? Past UN detachments of ‘blue helmets’ have been brushed aside by Israeli and Arab forces alike.

6) West Bank violence

Gaza isn’t the only Palestinian territory in which violence is at risk of reigniting.

The Israeli-occupied West Bank, which stretches from Jerusalem east to the River Jordan, has seen more than 1,400 violent deaths in the past two years.

Interspersed among its population of roughly five million Arabs are hundreds of thousands of Jewish settlers.

Security responsibilities are shared between Israel and the Palestinian authority. A clash around the settlements and along the roads connecting them could easily spiral out of control.

The October 7 attacks on kibbutzim bordering Gaza could well be the model for a similar atrocity on the West Bank.

7) Historic divisions

Deep historical rivalries underlie the current Arab-Israel dispute – specifically over the question of who owns the land by right?

Israelis look back to Ancient Israel as their national heritage. From King David’s city of Jerusalem – the site of Solomon’s temple – to Arab majority cities like Hebron, where Abraham, the founder of the religion is buried, countless key Jewish sites are in this territory.

Countless key Jewish sites are in King David’s city of Jerusalem – as well as many Muslim ones

Meanwhile, Muslim shrines such as the Al Aqsa mosque and the Dome Of The Rock are in east Jerusalem, a city which Israel – and Donald Trump – regards as its territory but which many European and Arab states prefer to see as Palestinian.

There is no obvious way to reconcile these incompatible and deeply felt claims.

8) Return of missiles

External agents such as Iran and its proxies in the region – Yemen’s Houthis and Lebanon’s Hezbollah – could stir up trouble by renewing the missile attacks they started in 2023. Would Israel be willing to tolerate this? It seems highly unlikely.

9) Frontline friction

Not every potentially explosive event could be a planned provocation. Just yesterday morning, Israeli Army soldiers shot five Palestinians dead as they crossed the ceasefire line, showing how spontaneous actions can lead to violence and potential escalation.

10) Territorial disputes

Time is often regarded as a great healer but the lesson of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is that the passage of time can also deepen the bitterness between peoples.

Many Palestinians in both Gaza and the West Bank still live only a few miles from homes their families occupied before 1948 when they were driven out by the Israelis.

Distance in space as well as time might make refugees put past sufferings and grievances behind them, but Palestinians have had eight decades to nurse their resentments against Israel and it is not obvious that a pause in the fighting will see them look to the future.

11) International divisions

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says Israel won’t accept any kind of independent Palestinian state but some of America’s key European allies, including Keir Starmer’s government here and President Macron’s in France, have already recognised ‘Palestine’ as an independent country. This means Trump’s major international friends could unravel his peace efforts. Trump may be right to leave some details of the future vague to get on with rebuilding but his squabbling allies could trip up his approach and he will need to stay committed as other world crises such as Ukraine grab his attention.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, right, says Israel won’t accept any kind of independent Palestinian state

12) Peace Board rows

Fighting over the composition of Trump’s ‘Peace Board’, the body he envisages overseeing Gaza and an ambitious reconstruction programme, could also spell trouble.

About the only thing all parties agree on is that Trump should preside over it but the President has many other things on his plate. An unwieldy supervising body could become factionalised and paralyse rebuilding efforts, leaving ordinary Palestinians – denied their peace dividend – turning back to extremist leaders.

13) Gas field revenues

Will the Palestinians be given rights to territorial waters? If so, there are bound to be disputes over the natural gas fields off the coast of Gaza.

The Israelis will want them for their revenue as they seek to recover some of the costs of the war, while the Palestinians need every penny they can get to rebuild their shattered cities.

14) Right-wing backlash

Foot-dragging by Hamas over giving up its weapons could lead Right-wing elements of Netanyahu’s coalition to pressure him to resume military operations in Gaza, effectively scuttling Trump’s deal. As one ultra-Right member of Netanyahu’s governing coalition said this week: ‘We are not happy with any deal that is not total surrender of Hamas… We will not accept any partial victory.’

• Mark Almond is director of the Crisis Research Institute in Oxford