Iran has issued a stern warning of a ‘crushing response’ to any military aggression, following former President Donald Trump’s ultimatum regarding the nuclear deal. Tensions have escalated between Washington and Tehran, particularly after a wave of protests in Iran led Trump to consider military action in response to a violent crackdown. Meanwhile, Iran has accused the United States of inciting what it calls ‘riots.’ These exchanges have reverberated across the region, prompting calls for diplomatic solutions to ease the heightened tensions. While Iranian officials have not ruled out diplomatic talks, they have made it clear that any U.S. military action would be met with force. Iran’s army chief, Amir Hatami, announced on state television that their military arsenal now includes 1,000 ‘strategic drones’ poised for combat. Hezbollah’s senior official, Nawaf al-Moussawi, also cautioned that the consequences of a U.S. strike would be unpredictable, suggesting that uncertainty is preventing American action.

When asked if Hezbollah, which is supported by Iran, would back Iran in the event of a U.S. attack, al-Moussawi responded ambiguously, stating, ‘We will cross that bridge when we get to it.’ Meanwhile, a U.S. naval strike group has arrived in the Middle East, with Trump asserting that it is ‘ready, willing, and able’ to strike Iran ‘if necessary.’ He emphasized that ‘time is running out’ for Iran to negotiate a deal regarding its nuclear ambitions, which Western nations suspect aim to develop nuclear weapons. The U.S. briefly joined Israel in targeting Iranian nuclear sites during June’s conflict with Iran. Trump is reportedly considering various strategies against Iran, including targeted strikes on key security figures and infrastructure to empower protesters to challenge the government. According to two U.S. sources, Trump aims to create conditions for ‘regime change’ after a severe crackdown quashed a widespread protest movement earlier this month, resulting in thousands of deaths.

One U.S. source noted that discussions among Trump’s advisors include the possibility of a more extensive strike aimed at Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities or nuclear enrichment programs to ensure lasting damage. However, the other source mentioned that Trump has yet to decide on a definitive course of action, including whether to pursue military intervention. Concerns have been raised by four Arab officials, three Western diplomats, and a senior Western source, all briefed on the discussions, that such military actions might not incite public uprisings as intended. Instead, they could further demoralize a movement already reeling from the most violent suppression since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Alex Vatanka, of the Middle East Institute’s Iran Program, pointed out that without significant military defections, Iran’s protests remain ‘heroic but outgunned.’ A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran is preparing for potential military conflict while simultaneously exploring diplomatic avenues.

However, Washington was not showing openness ‍to diplomacy, the official said. Tehran, which says its nuclear program is civilian, was ready for dialogue ‘based on mutual respect and interests’ but would defend itself ‘like never before’ if pushed, Iran’s mission to the United Nations said in a post on X ​on Wednesday. Seyed Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, warned on X that Iran’s forces were ready to retaliate. He said: ‘Our brave Armed Forces are prepared – with their fingers on the trigger – to immediately and powerfully respond to ANY aggression against our beloved land, air, and sea. ‘The valuable lessons learned from the 12-Day War have enabled us to respond even more strongly, rapidly, and profoundly. ‘At the same time, Iran has always welcomed a mutually beneficial, fair and equitable NUCLEAR DEAL – on equal footing, and free from coercion, threats, and intimidation – which ensures Iran’s rights to PEACEFUL nuclear technology, and guarantees NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS.

‘Such weapons have no place in our security calculations and we have NEVER sought to acquire them.’ Trump has not publicly detailed what he is looking for in any deal. His administration’s previous negotiating points have included banning Iran from independently enriching uranium and restrictions on long-range ballistic missiles and on Tehran’s network of armed proxies in the Middle East. A senior Israeli official with direct knowledge of planning between Israel and the United States told Reuters Israel does not believe airstrikes alone can topple the Islamic Republic, if that is Washington’s goal. ‘If you’re going to topple the regime, you have to put boots on the ground,’ he said, noting that even if the United States killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran would ‘have a new leader that will replace him’. Only a combination of external pressure ‍and an organized domestic opposition could shift ‍Iran’s political trajectory, the official said. The Israeli official said Iran’s leadership had been weakened by the unrest but remained firmly in control despite the ongoing deep economic crisis that sparked the protests.

Multiple US intelligence reports reached a similar conclusion, that the conditions that led to the protests were still in place, weakening the government, but without major fractures, two people familiar with the matter said. The Western source said they believed Trump’s goal appeared to be to engineer a change in leadership, rather than ‘topple the regime,’ an outcome that would be similar to Venezuela, where US intervention replaced the president without a wholesale change of government. Iran’s neighbors, including Gulf states that host US military sites, have called for calm. A Gulf official said that fears of a US strike on Iran are ‘very clear’. ‘It would bring the region into chaos, it would hurt the economy not just in the region but in the US and cause oil and gas prices to skyrocket,’ the official added. Turkey on Thursday said it would offer to mediate between Washington and Tehran during an upcoming visit by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, after Ankara’s top diplomat urged Washington to start nuclear talks with Tehran.

‘It’s wrong to attack Iran. It’s wrong to start the war again. Iran is ready to negotiate on the nuclear file again,’ Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told Qatar-based Al-Jazeera television in English. NATO member Turkey is also weighing contingency plans along its 330-mile border with Iran should the dispute escalate, a senior official said. Iran ally Russia on Thursday also said ‘the potential for negotiations is not exhausted.’ ‘Any use of force can only create chaos in the region and lead to very dangerous consequences,’ Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists. Trump’s recent statements have focused more on Iran’s nuclear programme than the fate of protesters in the anti-government demonstrations that erupted in late December and peaked on January 8 and 9. In an updated toll, the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) said it had confirmed that 6,373 people had been killed and more than 40,000 arrested, as internet restrictions persisted after a shutdown imposed on January 8.

Iranian authorities acknowledge that thousands were killed during the protests, giving a toll of over 3,000 deaths, but say the majority were members of the security forces or bystanders killed by ‘rioters’. Khamenei has publicly acknowledged several thousand deaths during the protests.He blamed the unrest on the United States, Israel and what he called ‘seditionists’. Time magazine on Sunday cited two senior Iranian health ministry officials saying at least 30,000 people had been killed, while The Guardian, citing medical professionals, reported a similar figure, adding that a large number of people had disappeared. Verification is hampered by a near-total internet shutdown now in its fourth week, as well as attempts by the regime to conceal the number of total casualties by pushing for fast, mass burials. At 86, Khamenei has retreated from daily governance, reduced public appearances and is believed to be residing in secure locations ⁠after Israeli strikes last year decimated many of Iran’s senior military leaders, regional officials said. Day-to-day management has shifted to figures aligned with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including senior adviser Ali Larijani, they said.

The powerful Guards dominate Iran’s security network and big parts of the economy. However, Khamenei retains final authority over war, succession and nuclear strategy – meaning political change is very difficult until he exits the scene, they said. Iran’s foreign ministry did not respond to questions about Khamenei. It comes as the EU is set to agree to put Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) on the bloc’s ‘terrorist list’ over the crackdown, which rights groups say saw thousands killed by security forces, including the IRGC – the ideological arm of Tehran’s military. ‘If you act as a terrorist, you should also be treated as terrorists,’ top diplomat Kaja Kallas told journalists ahead of a ministers’ meeting in Brussels, adding that the step puts the Guards on the same level as jihadist groups such as Al-Qaeda and the Islamic Stategroup. The symbolic move will send a strong message of condemnation to Iran, though it is expected to have little practical impact, as the organization and senior commanders are already under EU sanctions. However, Iran has warned of ‘destructive consequences’ if the designation is greenlit, state media reported on Tuesday.