This morning the world’s focus is on Donald Trump’s decision to launch a global trade war. But in a few weeks’ time, the man who last month pledged to deliver ‘peace through strength’ is planning to embark on a real war.

I’m currently in Tel Aviv, and according to several senior political, military and diplomatic sources, the United States and Israel are preparing to launch a strike on Iran that will finally eradicate the threat posed by the country’s nuclear weapons programme.

‘This should have been avoided a long time ago’, a senior Israeli government source told me. ‘It’s time to draw a line.’

On Monday, Trump announced with typical grandiloquence: ‘If they [Iran] don’t make a deal, there will be bombing… it will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before.’ Some observers believed this was just more hyperbolic rhetoric. But the Israeli source was clear. ‘It’s not just a crazy insistence. It’s extremely important for the stability of Israel and the world.’

Threats of military action against Iran’s nuclear weapons programme have been made before. But there’s now clear evidence that, this time, both the US and Israel intend to do more than just rattle their sabres. 

A week ago the US deployed a trio of B2 ‘Spirit’ stealth bombers, accompanied by long-range refuelling assets, to its Chagos Islands base on Diego Garcia, bringing the total strength of the bomber force there to seven. This was significant because it’s rare to see such a major concentration of these sophisticated – and expensive – assets, and the B2s have the capability to deploy the GBU-57 ‘Bunker Buster’ which can penetrate Iran’s hardened nuclear shelters.

Donald Trump watches as military strikes are launched against Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis last month

Missiles are fired from a ship during strikes against the Houthis. The renewed assault significantly degraded the rebels’ capacity to launch long-range missiles at Israel

According to a second senior diplomatic source: ‘From Israel’s perspective, with Trump in the White House, this represents the optimum moment to deal with Iran. There won’t be a better chance.’

The decision to prepare for such a major escalation is partly being driven by February’s report from the International Atomic Energy Agency that Iran’s stock of enriched Uranium had significantly increased. ‘Iran is the only non-nuclear weapon state enriching to this level, causing me serious concern’, said director-general Rafael Mariano Grossi.

According to the diplomatic source: ‘Obtaining precise intelligence on just how far Iran’s nuclear programme has advanced has always been hard. But the reality is they’re much, much closer than anyone can be comfortable with. And they have been for some time.’

But an equally significant factor is that Israel now regards Iran as the ultimate perpetrator of the October 7 attacks. ‘They are the head of the snake,’ one Israeli politician claimed.

As a result, Israel has spent the past few months ‘ploughing the road’ to prepare for major air strikes. According to a senior Israeli military source: ‘Over the past year, we struck in Yemen three or four times, and we had three air campaigns in Iran, eliminating on the way most of the aerial defence systems in Syria, Iraq and Iran. They were the main obstacle when thinking about a big aerial operation on the way to Iran – their proxy aerial defence systems.’

This emphasis on proxies is an important component of Israeli military planning. A key factor influencing a US and Israeli decision to launch a major strike was Iran’s capacity to hit back, both on land and in the air. But the campaign in Lebanon is seen to have effectively neutralised the threat of Hezbollah. The Gaza assault has removed Hamas’s ability to strike inside Israel. And the renewed assault on the Houthis has significantly degraded the rebels’ capacity to launch long-range missiles at Israel.

Iranians burn an Israel flag during a rally marking Al Quds Day in Tehran on March 28, in solidarity with Palestinians 

Which effectively leaves Iran isolated. Last April they launched a major assault on Israel, with 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles and 120 ballistic missiles. This was followed in October by an attack involving an additional 200 ballistic missiles. But Israel’s air defence network – comprised of the Iron Dome, Arrow and David’s Sling systems, augmented by recently deployed US Thaad anti-missile batteries – effectively neutralised the threat. According to a senior Israeli government source: ‘It was an unprecedented attack. 300 missiles. And it failed. It didn’t do any serious damage.’

There is still the possibility Iran could back down in the face of Trump’s ultimatum. But a senior British diplomatic source I spoke to expressed pessimism. ‘This is where the problem of Trump’s management of Putin kicks in’, they explained. ‘Tehran has seen him spending the first months of his presidency telling everyone “Putin has nukes. I’m going to do everything I can to avoid a nuclear war”. They see nuclear weapons as the one thing that has Donald Trump genuinely scared. So their calculation is, “if they scare him, we need them”.’

Even if the Iranians do grant significant concessions, there is still no guarantee it would stay Israel’s hand. We have all witnessed the horrific images of October 7. But you have to walk around the Nir Oz kibbutz, stand outside the Bibas family home and see the small pile of children’s toys heaped in a plastic box just outside the front door. Or stand in the field that backs on to the Nova Festival site, and attempt to count the rows and rows of individual trees that have been planted in memory of the more than 360 people who were so brutally murdered there. Only then can you properly understand.

Israel is a nation traumatised – some might say blinded – by grief and guilt and fear. It has not even begun to properly process the events of 18 months ago. Indeed, it may never adequately do so.

But there is one thing Israel is clear on. It wants a reckoning with its enemies. And in particular, it wants a reckoning with Iran.

Donald Trump’s trade war is a sideshow. A real war is coming.