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A snapshot from the Marinetraffic website, captured on March 4, 2026, illustrates the bustling commercial ship activity along the Strait of Hormuz, just off the Iranian coast. This image, taken by Julien De Rosa for AFP and Getty Images, highlights a critical juncture in global oil transportation.
In a significant policy shift amidst escalating geopolitical tensions, the United States has temporarily eased restrictions on India’s oil trade. After previously imposing a hefty 25% tariff on India for purchasing Russian crude—a penalty that was lifted just last month—the U.S. has now issued a 30-day waiver. This decision comes as the ongoing conflict in Iran continues to disrupt global oil supplies.
In response to these developments, oil prices experienced a dramatic surge on Thursday. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude saw its largest single-day increase since May 2020, jumping 8.51% or $6.35 to reach $81.01 per barrel. Meanwhile, the global benchmark Brent crude rose by 4.93%, or $4.01, closing at $85.41 per barrel.
The waiver allowing India, a major player in the global oil market as the fourth-largest refiner and fifth-largest exporter of petroleum products, to import Russian oil is expected to alleviate some of the pressure on global oil supplies. However, the market remained volatile, with both Brent and WTI crude prices dipping over 1% on Friday, trading at $84.42 and $79.92 per barrel, respectively.
India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, had initially shifted its focus to Middle Eastern suppliers to replace Russian crude. However, with the ongoing conflict affecting energy resources from the Gulf region, India is increasingly turning back to Russian oil to secure its energy needs.
New Delhi, also the world’s third largest oil importer, had been replacing Russian oil purchases with supply from Middle East, experts said, but with the conflict affecting energy supplies from the Gulf countries, it is starting to shore up energy from Moscow.
“I’ve heard that Indian refiners have been actively seeking prompt Russian crude supplies since last weekend,” said Muyu Xu, senior research analyst for crude at energy data tracker Kpler, adding that based on “market chatter,” New Delhi is likely to have bought up to 6-8 million barrels of Russian oil over the past 2–3 days.
This “short-term measure will not provide significant financial benefit” to Russia as it only allows transactions of oil already stranded at sea, the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessant said in a post on X.
The U.S. government is taking steps to curb rising oil prices, including offering political risk insurance for tankers transiting the Gulf. U.S. crude prices have climbed about 20% this week on the back of the escalating conflict in the Middle East.
“Further action to reduce pressure on oil is imminent and … in the long-term, the actions we’re taking will dramatically increase the stability of the region and oil prices,” U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday.
“It [the waiver] is a relief valve, in view of the loss of nearly 20 million barrel per day of crude from the Gulf producers,” said Vandana Hari, CEO of energy research firm Vanda Insights, adding that the 30-day waiver was “not nearly enough” and Washington continues to put “band aids on a gunshot wound.”
Hari expects Brent crude to continue “creeping higher than the $80s” as she feels chances of the Hormuz blockade being lifted quickly are “extremely dim.” The traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway used for 20% of global oil flows, remains at a standstill following Iranian warnings and surging insurance costs for shippers.
“Our data shows that no laden crude tankers have transited the Strait of Hormuz since last weekend, including vessels that may be bound for India,” said Xu.
Impact on India
India currently has “access to about 100 million barrels,” enough to cover up to 45 days of crude demand, Prateek Pandey, head of APAC oil and gas research at energy intelligence firm Rystad Energy, told CNBC’s “Inside India” on Thursday.
Pandey said that Indian refineries will not be impacted over the next three to four weeks, but “there will be concerns,” if the disruption in Middle East continues beyond that.
Sourcing from alternate destinations such as Venezuela poses challenges as these cargoes take almost a month to reach India, he said.
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In August last year, India was hit with a 50% U.S. tariffs, including 25% as punishment for purchasing Russian oil. Last month, the penalty was removed conditional to India cutting back imports from Moscow and buying more American energy. Washington warned it could reinstate the penalty, if India resumed buying Russian oil.
“I have not yet seen any increase in US crude arrivals into India,” said Xu adding that any pickup in New Delhi buying American oil following the trade deal will get reflected in the April or May data.
