The planet is bracing for a millennium of perilous heatwaves, regardless of whether humanity succeeds in achieving net zero emissions. However, any postponement in reaching this goal could exacerbate the situation.
Scientists from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and the CSIRO have projected what the coming thousand years of heatwaves might entail, assuming that global net zero is accomplished between 2030 and 2060.
Their findings indicate that the longer it takes to reach net zero, the more severe, prolonged, and frequent heatwaves will become. Additionally, even after achieving net zero, long-term warming in the Southern Ocean may continue to intensify these heat events.
“Our study, though concerning, offers a critical preview into the distant future, enabling us to strategize and implement effective, long-lasting adaptation measures,” one of the researchers stated.
“Achieving swift and lasting net zero is crucial,” she added.
Dr. Andrew King, a co-author from the University of Melbourne, emphasized that adapting to these changes will require efforts spanning centuries rather than just decades.
“Investment in public infrastructure, housing, and health services to keep people cool and healthy during extreme heat will very likely look quite different in terms of scale, cost and the resources required under earlier versus later net zero stabilisation,” he said.
