Ocean swimmers head into the water at Coogee in Sydney as the sun shines on the water.
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Australia will sweat through a dry, hot autumn as long-range forecasts show above-average temperatures and below-average rainfall on the horizon.

Australians should brace for warm nights ahead, as forecasts indicate that nighttime temperatures will remain higher than usual across much of the country during March, April, and May.

The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) also currently rates the chances of an El Niño developing in the second half of the year at about 90 per cent, bringing more hot, dry conditions.

As autumn 2026 approaches, here’s what residents can expect regarding the weather.

Ocean swimmers head into the water at Coogee in Sydney as the sun shines on the water.
Autumn is looking dry and hot based on current long-range forecasts. (Max Mason-Hubers)

The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) forecasts an 80 percent likelihood that temperatures will exceed the average across most regions from March through May.

This season, expect maximum temperatures to climb significantly above normal in New South Wales, the Australian Capital Territory, Victoria, South Australia, Tasmania, and Western Australia.

In Queensland and the Northern Territory, the odds of experiencing above-average temperatures are slightly lower, standing at around 50 percent.

Even after sunset, Australians can anticipate warm conditions to persist.

According to the BOM, it’s very likely overnight temperatures will be above average across much of Australia.

A map showing the chance of Australia's temperature exceeding the median from March to May 2026. It shows very high chances across most of the country.
Warmer than average days and nights are likely across most of Australia in autumn 2026. (Bureau of Meteorology)

The BOM is predicting below-average autumn rainfall across most of Australia’s southern regions, including NSW, the ACT, Victoria, South Australia, and most parts of WA.

North-eastern Tasmania and South Australia’s interior specifically are forecast to receive unusually low rainfall.

The drier-than-average conditions could put some states on high alert for bushfire risk.

It’s a slightly different story up north.

The rainfall forecast for March to May in much of northern Australia isn’t leaning one way or another yet, meaning it could be below, above, or right on average.

And parts of Cape York Peninsula, the Top End and northern Kimberley are slated for above-average rainfall in March.

A map showing the chance of Australia's rainfall exceeding the median from March to May 2026. It shows very low chances for the southern half of the country.
Drier than average conditions are expected across Australia’s southern half in autumn 2026. (Bureau of Meteorology)

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