Can Donald Trump Resolve the Russia-Ukraine Conflict? Key Challenges to Consider

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Russia has announced that plans are underway for an imminent meeting between United States President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

This follows Trump’s recent statement about a “good chance” of meeting with his Russian counterpart soon, as he looks to mediate an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

The Kremlin indicated that a meeting between the leaders of the US and Russia is scheduled “in the coming days”.

This announcement came just two days before Trump’s deadline for Russia to agree to a peace deal in Ukraine or face new sanctions.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy feels that the prospects for a ceasefire with Russia are improving, yet experts have informed SBS News that resolving the war will not be straightforward.

What have world leaders been saying?

Trump has been putting pressure on Russia to withdraw from Ukraine since taking office in January.

The New York Times reported Trump told European leaders during a call that he intended to meet with Putin and then follow up with a three-way meeting with the Russian leader and Zelenskyy.

Trump has not officially met with Putin in person since his first term, but that could change.

“There’s a good chance that there will be a meeting very soon,” Trump told reporters.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said: “The Russians expressed their desire to meet with President Trump, and the president is open to meeting with both President Putin and President Zelenskyy.”

Face-to-face talks between Trump and Putin could happen as soon as next week, a White House official said.

Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said on Thursday in a statement that, at the suggestion of the US, “an agreement has been reached in principle to hold a bilateral summit in the coming days”.

Ushakov said details were now being worked out and that a venue had also been agreed to “in principle”, with next week set as a target date.

A Kremlin aide said the talks were “useful and constructive”.

Zelenskyy said he believed the US applying pressure on Russia to end the war was working, and that Russia was now more “inclined” to a ceasefire.

“The pressure on them works. But the main thing is that they do not deceive us in the details — neither us nor the US,” Zelenskyy said in his nightly address.

In subsequent discussions with French and German leaders and the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, he stressed Europe’s involvement in the peace efforts.

What do we know about Trump and Putin’s relationship?

While Zelenskyy appears hopeful of an end to the war, a Russian foreign and security policy expert said any meeting could just be a “vague promise”, with no substantial outcomes.

Associate professor Matthew Sussex from the Australian National University’s Centre for European studies, said Trump and Putin’s relationship appears steady, despite the tensions between the US and Russia over the ongoing war in Ukraine.

“In spite of Trump’s apparent frustrations with Putin, he continues to show him extraordinary deference, and for whatever reason seems unwilling to put serious pressure on him,” he said.

“Putin clearly recognises that, and is fairly comfortable he can continue stringing him along with vague promises of meetings and summits.”

Three rounds of Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul have failed to make headway on a ceasefire, with both sides remaining far apart in their demands.

Sussex expressed doubt that any talks next week would produce tangible results, expecting them to be largely superficial.

“These ‘talks’ will therefore do three things: help Putin kick the can down the road; get Trump out of the cul-de-sac he created by issuing ‘ultimatums’ to Putin; and put pressure back on Ukraine and Europe to accept a peace largely on Russian terms,” he said.

Ukraine has targeted Russian refineries and energy facilities with drone strikes, while Russia has concentrated its air assault on Ukrainian cities.

‘Nil prospect’ of a quick resolution to the war

Several key points have repeatedly hindered previous talks aimed at ending the Russia-Ukraine war.

A major obstacle is what happens to the land Russia now occupies in Ukraine.

“There is nil prospect of resolving the war by next week,” Sussex said.

“Trump and Putin can’t address the territory issue because Ukraine is sidelined from those talks, reasonably distrusts the US, and will not agree to relinquish large parts of its land without being involved.”

A colourful map of Crimea, with Ukraine and Russia on either side.

The ancestral ownership of Crimea, along with its city of Sevastopol, is another sticking point between Russia and Ukraine.

Sussex said talks that do not include Europe or Zelenskyy would ultimately lead to Ukraine being pressured to accept peace on Russia’s terms.

“Zelenskyy’s role is crucial, but the responsibility for initiating peace talks has always rested with Russia, the aggressor. Simply put, Russia can end the war by pulling its troops. Moreover, finding another Ukrainian not disapproving of Putin would be difficult,” he stated.

Who would guarantee peace?

While an end to the war next week may seem far-fetched, peace in the region has been a clear policy goal for Trump, who had boasted he could end the conflict within 24 hours of taking office, though he later walked back those remarks.

Jessica Genauer, a senior lecturer in international relations at Flinders University, told SBS News that ensuring a lasting peace would be yet another challenge.

Genauer said questions remain about who would guarantee that no-one will violate any future borders between Russia and Ukraine.

“Who would ensure stability on a shared border between Ukraine and Russia under any such future agreement? Would this be a NATO force? This is very unlikely,” she said.

“Would there be an international peacekeeping force? Also, unlikely.

“It may be that the conflict freezes without any formal peace agreement and remains in a frozen state along the lines of the North Korean-South Korean conflict for many years to come.”