Crucial Seats That Could Secure Labor's Re-Election

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Just about every opinion poll published in the second half of Labor’s term has shown it on track to lose seats this federal election – even if the government has experienced a bit of a resurgence in two-party preferred terms in recent weeks.

But Australia-wide trends don’t reveal what’s happening in individual electorates, and while Labor is likely to lose some, there are others it has a genuine chance of winning off the Coalition to help cement a second term in power.

Chief among them is Menzies. The suburban seat in Melbourne’s north-west is currently held by Liberal Keith Wolahan, but redistribution has made it a notionally Labor seat, albeit on a very slender 0.42 per cent margin.

Anthony Albanese, Jim Chalmers and Tu Le. — Opinion polls suggest Labor will lose seats this election, but there are some it will believe it can win.(Alex Ellinghausen)

The government is eyeing off the nation’s northernmost seat of Leichhardt (3.44 per cent margin), where long-serving LNP MP Warren Entsch is retiring, but the Coalition may be a better chance of flipping Blair in outer Brisbane (5.23 per cent).

Where Queensland could be instructive is the three inner-Brisbane seats held by the Greens: Brisbane, held by Stephen Bates on a 3.73 per cent margin, Griffith (Max Chandler-Mather; 10.46 per cent) and Ryan (Elizabeth Watson – Brown; 2.65 per cent).

All loom three-way contests between the Greens, Labor and the Coalition where preference flows will play a crucial role.

While Chandler-Mather is the most likely to retain his seat – he alone of those three Greens MPs finished top on first preferences, and has built a high profile with his campaigning on the housing crisis – the other two could end up falling any one of three ways.

One or two gains for Labor would be a valuable buffer, with losses expected in NSW and Victoria, while if the LNP picks up the seats it used to hold, it would put the Coalition a lot closer to winning the election.

Tomorrow, we examine the seats where the teal independents will be looking to build on their success in 2022.