At the start of the year, Peter Dutton found himself in the unlikely position of making history in this federal election.

He did end up doing just that – just not in the way he wanted.

No opposition has succeeded in replacing a first-term government since 1931. Furthermore, until last night, no sitting opposition leader had ever lost their own seat during a federal election.

“A lot of people held that against him for a long time and obviously still do.”

Nine national affairs editor Andrew Probyn drew an unlikely comparison to a former Labor prime minister.

“I have long believed that Peter Dutton shares a characteristic with Julia Gillard in that he hasn’t been able to convey the other side of his personality,” he commented.

“And I think it is to do with a lot of the jobs he’s been given.

“He’s also actually really shy, and that’s the really strange mix of the man.”

The misunderstandings, though, ended up going both ways.

Throughout the campaign, Dutton frequently referred to internal polling indicating that the Coalition would have a winning opportunity in the crucial suburban seats expected to be pivotal.

He said repeatedly that the election was a referendum on the Labor government and on Albanese as prime minister.

The result makes for sober reading: history books will list Dutton as the leader who oversaw one of the Coalition’s most disastrous elections, and couldn’t even win his own seat.