Global Repercussions: Russia and Iran Respond to Venezuela's Maduro Capture

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The capture of Nicolas Maduro and the announcement that the United States will “run Venezuela” is no doubt being closely monitored by its longtime allies Iran, Russia and China — but the developments will affect each nation differently.

A gorup of people holding the Venezuelan flag celebrate

In Santiago, Chile, Venezuelans erupted in celebration following the announcement by Donald Trump that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro had been captured. The news spread quickly, bringing hope to many who have been longing for change in their homeland.

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed significant concern over the development, stating he was “deeply alarmed” by the situation, reflecting the international community’s apprehension about the potential consequences.

The Russian Foreign Ministry has called the US’ actions “deeply concerning and condemnable” in its first response to the events in Venezuela and is now demanding the release of Nicolas Maduro.

In October, Russia and Venezuela signed a “strategic co-ordination” treaty, deepening military ties. Moscow pledged to “stand ready” to support its South American ally. It supplied air defence systems and anti-ship missiles.

Despite these reactions, the situation did not improve Maduro’s standing. His leadership has been under intense scrutiny, and this latest turn of events appears to have compounded his challenges.

While Russia may be criticising the American intervention in Venezuela, there’s one aspect of the operation that’s likely pleasing to Russian President Vladimir Putin, as he continues his war in Ukraine: The idea that great powers write the rules for themselves, that the ‘international rules-based order’ is dead and buried and it’s the strong who determine what’s right and what’s wrong.

Still, it hasn’t been a good couple of years for Russia’s interests abroad, losing key allies in Damascus — and now Caracas.

Even more concerning for the Kremlin, should the US gain control of Venezuela’s oil reserves, it would allow Washington more control over global supply, and therefore prices.

Venezuela’s economy heavily relies on energy exports, which have been a crucial source of revenue. The nation’s oil exports, particularly to countries like China, have been a financial lifeline despite the global political tensions surrounding Maduro’s government.

In recent years, a significant portion of Venezuela’s oil has been exported to China, accounting for about 80% of its total oil exports. Trump mentioned that these sales will be allowed to continue, indicating a potential shift in international trade dynamics.

Hours before Maduro’s capture, a Chinese delegation met the now-deposed president — the visiting dignitaries providing him with no protection from what was to come.

Beijing issued a statement declaring it is “deeply shocked and strongly condemns the US’s blatant use of force against a sovereign state”.

Will it alter President Xi Jinping’s calculus when it comes to Taiwan? Probably not.

The Chinese President is playing a long game. He’ll also likely want to draw a contrast with Washington, suggesting it’s China that is committed to respecting international law.

If the US is drawn into a long-term commitment in South America, drawing resources and attention away from the Indo-Pacific, it will suit Beijing just fine.

In recent years, about 80 per cent of Venezuela’s oil exports have gone to China. Trump has said it will allow sales to continue.

Tehran

It’s been a busy start to 2026 in geopolitics. Little more than 24 hours ago, President Trump made headlines when he warned the Iranian government that should peaceful protesters be shot, the United States is “locked and loaded and ready to go”.

Tehran dismissed the threat, warning the United States against adventurism. They might be re-thinking their approach today.

Obviously, decapitating the Iranian regime would be a lot more challenging than what has occurred in Venezuela. Even the US military’s top units would struggle to find the Ayatollah and drag him from his bed.

But President Trump has already taken military action against Iran; providing the key strikes against nuclear facilities during Israel’s 12-day war in June.

Cheering from the sidelines is Israel, with key political figures urging Iran to “pay close attention” to what’s happening in Venezuela.

Havana

“I think Cuba is going to be something we’ll talk about”.

This brief comment from President Trump deep into his overnight press conference will have got the attention of the leadership in Havana.

Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel Bermudez has denounced the US operation in Caracas calling it a “criminal attack”.

Even if the US doesn’t run the same playbook in Havana, Cuba will be severely impacted by events in Venezuela. It sends huge amounts of oil to the island nation, which is facing its most severe economic crisis in decades.

An interesting aside — many of the guards who protected Maduro were Cuban, as he’d grown to distrust his own personnel.

Copenhagen

Did this sub-heading take you by surprise?

Though Denmark is no ally of Venezuela — it will be closely watching the developments.

The nation has not liked President Trump’s rhetoric regarding Greenland, a Danish autonomous territory. Trump’s made it clear he “wants it”, but so far has done little about it.

The idea the United States would ever take the island by force has always seemed unlikely; Denmark is a NATO ally after all.

But now? Nothing can be ruled out. President Trump could simply declare US bases in Greenland have been annexed and there’s little the Danes could do about it.