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The election night results have been mixed for the Greens, including losing two seats in Brisbane.
Simon Welsh, director at the Redbridge Group, anticipates that Labor will take over the seat of Griffith from the Greens. This seat is currently represented by Max Chandler-Mather, the party’s spokesperson on housing and homelessness.
Adam Bandt’s Melbourne seat is also in jeopardy.
“The situation isn’t clear yet — it’s too close to call — but the outlook isn’t promising,” said Shaun Ratcliff, principal at Accent Research.
In an Instagram post, Bandt said he thought the party would retain Melbourne as well as all its Senate seats.
He said the party was also looking good in the seats of Ryan, Wills and Richmond.
But he conceded the loss of two seats.
“While our national vote has increased, the collapse in the Liberal vote means Labor will win the seats of Griffith with Liberal preferences, and Brisbane too.”
In Brisbane, Labor’s Madonna Jarrett looks to have taken the seat from the Greens’ Stephen Bates.
Ratcliff said it was possible the Gaza conflict may have been a drag on the Greens’ vote in some inner city seats, particularly in Melbourne.
The Greens took a firm stance on Gaza, pledging to continue its calls for an end to the occupation of Palestinian territories and urging Israel to halt what they describe as an ongoing genocide.
Ratcliff noted, “The Greens have definitely lost ground in some inner city Melbourne areas, which could be a part — not the sole cause — of the issue.”
Welsh agreed and said research leading up to polling day found voters didn’t like the politicisation of the issue.
“I think the Greens — for those older progressive voters — strayed into being seen as policitising an issue they thought shouldn’t be dealt with in that way,” he said.
“There was this sense of wanting social cohesion around this issue, so that both Muslim and Jewish communities would feel safe in this country. So anything that had that sniff of one-sidedness was certainly problematic.”
While the Greens appeared to be attracting young voters, Welsh said they may be losing their middle-aged progressive voters.
He added, “While their overall vote might be steady due to the younger demographic, they’re not gaining enough support in decisive seats.”
“They’re picking them up in the outer suburbs and being gutted by middle-aged progressive voters in the seats they’re trying to contest.”
But the Greens do have a chance of picking up the Melbourne seat of Wills, where Samantha Ratnam is facing off against Labor’s Peter Khalil.
“Labor is making up ground in Wills — [but counting] could go beyond tonight too,” Ratcliff said on Saturday night.
The Greens are also looking good in the NSW north coast seat of Richmond, where the Greens’ Mandy Nolan appears competitive against Labor’s Justine Elliot; and in the Brisbane seat of Ryan.
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