According to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, worldwide economic expansion is anticipated to drop to 2.8% this year, a decline from 3.3% the previous year, and well below the historical norms.
The anticipated downturn in the United States is more pronounced, with forecasts suggesting that by 2025 the US economy will expand by only 1.8%, following a 2.8% rise in 2024.
North America, just like all regions, can’t expect any upside from the tariffs further down the line.
Gourinchas informed reporters on Tuesday, “The sustained imposition of tariffs will have detrimental effects across all regions in both the long term and short term.”
The latest World Economic Outlook was put together under “exceptional” circumstances, the IMF said.
Trump’s April 2 unveiling of sweeping tariffs “forced us to jettison our projections — nearly finalised at that point,” it wrote.
Underscoring the importance of trade to the economic outlook, the IMF said a ratcheting up of trade tensions, along with even more questions about where trade policies are headed, could further reduce growth, whereas “de-escalation from current tariff rates and new agreements providing clarity and stability in trade policies” could do the opposite.
