The economic forecast for 2026 is now looking significantly less optimistic than it did just a short while ago. Despite previous predictions pointing towards possible interest rate cuts, the conversation has shifted dramatically. Many homeowners and casual observers are left puzzled by the sudden change in financial outlook.

Just a few months ago, economic analysts were confidently forecasting the cash rate to stabilize around 3.1 percent. However, this projection has been upended by an unexpected surge in inflation, which has altered the trajectory of interest rate discussions.

Why aren’t interest rates expected to come down?

Initially, inflation seemed to be under control, comfortably sitting within the central bank’s target range of 2 to 3 percent. But recent data tell a different story. The consumer price index (CPI) rose to 3.2 percent during the September quarter and continued its upward trend, reaching 3.8 percent in October. This was coupled with underlying inflation figures that are closely trailing these increases.

Such a sharp rise in inflation has prompted reconsideration of future interest rate movements, and rate hikes are now being contemplated as a countermeasure to the mounting inflationary pressures. This unexpected economic development has shifted the narrative, leaving many to reconsider their financial strategies for the coming years.

The reason for the turnaround is an unexpected surge in inflation.

Having fallen back into the central bank’s target band of 2-3 per cent, the consumer price index (CPI) jumped to 3.2 per cent in the September quarter and again to 3.8 per cent in October, with underlying inflation not too far behind.

The data-driven RBA will get two new batches of inflation figures before its February decision – for November on January 7 and December on the 28th.

If inflation cools off, so too will the chance of a rate hike. 

But if it comes in hot once again, then mortgage holders will have every right to feel nervous about the first rates decision of the year.

“If trimmed mean inflation in the December quarter does not fall back as we expect (and comes in around 0.9 per cent quarter-on-quarter or more), then a hike as early as February is possible,” Oliver said.

“December quarter CPI inflation is the key to what happens early next year on rates.”

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