Australian Liberal Party leader Peter Dutton talks with an election official as he prepares to vote in his electorate in Brisbane, Australia, Saturday, May 3, 2025.
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Peter Dutton is well-acquainted with fighting tenaciously for his seat, and he appears to be in for another protracted night.

9News political editor Charles Croucher has forecasted a Labor win in the federal election, which diminishes Dutton’s chances of becoming prime minister.

Additionally, he’s contending with a vigorous challenge for his seat of Dickson, situated in the north-western suburbs of Brisbane.

Australian Liberal Party leader Peter Dutton talks with an election official as he prepares to vote in his electorate in Brisbane, Australia, Saturday, May 3, 2025.
Australian Liberal Party leader Peter Dutton is no stranger to battling hard for his seat. (AP Photo/Pat Hoelscher)

The opposition leader currently holds Dickson by a wafer-thin margin of 1.7 per cent and Labor has targeted this as a huge scalp.

It is early in the night but if Dutton was to lose his seat, the Liberals would have to find a new leader.

In the unlikely event the Coalition was to form government, we would have a party with no leader in power.

Just under three hours after polls closed, Labor candidate Ali France has won 34.5 per cent of the votes so far, while Dutton has 30.7 per cent.

Independent candidate Ellie Smith is at a modest 13.0 per cent.

But preferences from Smith, who is backed by environmental group Climate 200 and calls herself a “maroon” independent, could decide the seat.

Croucher labelled the seat “messy”.

“This is concerning for the Liberal Party,” he said.

Dutton has held Dickson since 2001.

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