In Brief:
- Peace talks to end the Iran-US war have stalled, as Trump rejects Tehran’s proposal to delay nuclear discussions until after the war ends.
- With negotiations at an impasse and the Strait of Hormuz nearly closed to global shipping, oil prices are surging again.
Efforts to bring an end to the ongoing conflict with Iran have hit a significant roadblock, as U.S. President Donald Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with Tehran’s latest proposal. According to Trump, Iran has communicated to the U.S. that it is in a “state of collapse” and is currently grappling with leadership uncertainties.
Tehran’s recent offer aimed at resolving the two-month-long war suggests postponing discussions about its nuclear program until the conflict concludes and shipping disputes are settled. However, Trump has made it clear that he insists on addressing nuclear issues right from the start, according to a U.S. official who was briefed on Monday’s meeting between Trump and his advisers.
On Tuesday, Trump took to Truth Social to share, “Iran has just informed us that they are in a ‘State of Collapse’. They want us to ‘Open the Hormuz Strait,’ as soon as possible, as they try to figure out their leadership situation (which I believe they will be able to do!).”
Trump’s post leaves some ambiguity regarding how this message was conveyed by Iran, and Tehran has yet to make an official response to his latest remarks. Meanwhile, an Iranian army spokesperson has reiterated through state media that the Islamic Republic does not view the war as concluded.
It was unclear from his post how Iran might have communicated that message and there was no immediate response from Tehran to Trump’s latest comments.
Earlier, an Iranian army spokesperson told state media the Islamic Republic did not consider the war over.
Iran has largely blocked all shipping apart from its own from the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for global energy supplies, since the war began on 28 February.
This month, the US began blockading Iranian ships.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards take greater role
Hopes of reviving peace efforts in a conflict that has killed thousands, thrown energy markets into turmoil and disrupted global trade routes have receded since Trump last weekend scrapped a visit by his special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner to mediator Pakistan.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi shuttled in and out of Islamabad twice during the weekend.
Since several senior Iranian political and military figures were killed in US-Israeli strikes, Iran no longer has a single, undisputed clerical arbiter at the pinnacle of power, which may be hardening Tehran’s negotiating stance.
The killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the first day of the war, and the elevation of his wounded son, Mojtaba, to replace him as supreme leader, has handed more power to hardline commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iranian officials and analysts say.
Senior Iranian officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters the proposal carried by Araqchi to Islamabad over the weekend envisioned talks in stages.
A first step would require ending the war and providing guarantees the US cannot restart it. Then negotiators would resolve the US Navy’s blockade of Iran’s trade by sea and the fate of the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran aims to reopen under its control.
Only then would talks look at other issues, including the longstanding dispute over Iran’s nuclear program, with Iran seeking US acknowledgement of its right to enrich uranium.
That would bear echoes of Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with the United States and other powers, which had sharply curtailed Tehran’s nuclear program.
Trump unilaterally withdrew from that accord in his first term. Now he faces domestic pressure to end a war for which he has given the US public shifting rationales.
Trump’s approval rating fell to the lowest level of his current term, as Americans increasingly soured on his handling of the cost of living and the unpopular war, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.
The poll showed 34 per cent of Americans approve of Trump’s performance, down from 36 per cent in the prior survey.
In the latest sign of strains between Trump and European allies, he said in a social media post that German Chancellor Friedrich Merz “doesn’t know what he’s talking about” regarding Iran.
Merz said on Monday that Iran’s leadership was humiliating the US and that he did not see what exit strategy the Trump administration was pursuing.
But Britain’s King Charles told the US Congress on Tuesday that despite uncertainty and conflict in Europe and the Middle East, the UK and the US, “whatever our differences”, will always be staunch allies united in defending democracy. He spoke at a time of deep divisions between the two long-time partners over the war with Iran.
Oil prices rise again
With the warring sides still seemingly far apart, oil prices resumed their upward march, with the World Bank forecasting energy prices would surge by 24 per cent in 2026 to their highest level since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine four years ago, if the most acute disruptions caused by the Iran war end in May.
The United Arab Emirates said it was quitting OPEC and OPEC+, exposing discord among Gulf nations over Iran.
At least six tankers loaded with Iranian oil have been forced back to Iran by the US blockade in recent days, ship-tracking data showed, underscoring the war’s impact on traffic.
Iranian government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani told state media on Tuesday Tehran was using northern, eastern and western trade corridors that did not rely on Gulf ports to neutralise the blockade’s effects.
Between 125 and 140 ships usually crossed in and out of the Strait of Hormuz daily before the war, but only seven have done so in the past day, according to Kpler ship-tracking data and satellite analysis from SynMax, and none of them were carrying oil bound for the global market.
Also on Tuesday, the US said it was imposing sanctions on 35 entities and individuals for their role in Iran’s shadow banking system, accusing them of facilitating the movement of tens of billions of dollars tied to sanctions evasion and what it said was Iran’s sponsorship of terrorism.
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