Shas, a long-standing kingmaker in Israeli politics, declared its exit due to conflicts over a proposed law granting widespread military draft exemptions for its community members. It’s the second ultra-Orthodox party to leave the government this week.

Shas cabinet minister Michael Malkieli stated, “In this current situation, it’s impossible to sit in the government and to be a partner in it,” when explaining the party’s choice. However, Shas indicated it wouldn’t actively oppose Netanyahu from the outside and might still support some of his legislation, providing Netanyahu crucial support for governing despite the risks to his extended rule.

Once their resignations come into effect, Netanyahu’s coalition will have 50 seats in the 120-seat parliament.

Netanyahu’s government doesn’t face immediate collapse

Netanyahu’s rule, for now, doesn’t appear threatened. Once Shas’ resignations are put forward, there’s a 48-hour window before they become official, which gives him a chance to salvage his government.

Netanyahu’s Likud party did not immediately comment on Shas’ departure.

The party’s announcement also comes just before politicians recess for the summer, granting Netanyahu several months of little to no legislative activity to bring the parties back into the fold with a possible compromise on the draft law.

But if the coalition isn’t shored up by the time the Knesset reconvenes later this year, it could signal that Israel may be headed to early elections, which are currently scheduled for October 2026.

The political instability comes at a pivotal time for Israel, which is negotiating with Hamas on the terms for a US-backed ceasefire proposal for Gaza. Shas’ decision isn’t expected to derail the talks.

But with a fracturing coalition, Netanyahu will feel more pressure to appease his other governing allies, especially the influential far-right flank, which opposes ending the 21-month war in Gaza so long as Hamas remains intact. They have threatened to quit the government if it does end.

Despite losing two important political partners, Netanyahu will still be able to move ahead on a ceasefire deal, once one is reached. The Trump administration has been pushing Israel to wrap up the war.

The embattled Netanyahu is on trial for alleged corruption, and critics say he wants to hang on to power so that he can use his office as a bully pulpit to rally supporters and lash out against prosecutors and judges. That makes him all the more vulnerable to the whims of coalition allies.

Exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox have long divided Israel

On Tuesday, the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party said it was quitting over Netanyahu’s failure to pass a law on the military draft exemptions.

Military service is compulsory for most Jewish Israelis, and the issue of exemptions has long divided the country. Those rifts have widened since the start of the war in Gaza as demand for military manpower has grown and hundreds of soldiers have been killed.

A decades-old arrangement by Israel’s first prime minister granted hundreds of ultra-Orthodox men exemptions from compulsory Israeli service. Over the years, those exemptions ballooned into the thousands.

The ultra-Orthodox say their men are serving the country by studying sacred Jewish texts and preserving centuries’ old tradition. They fear that mandatory enlistment will dilute adherents’ connection to the faith.

But most Jewish Israelis see the exemption as unfair, as well as the generous government stipends granted to many ultra-Orthodox men who study instead of work throughout adulthood.

Netanyahu’s coalition has been trying to find a path forward on a new law. But his base is largely opposed to granting sweeping draft exemptions and a key lawmaker has stood in the way of giving the ultra-Orthodox a law they can get behind, prompting their exit.