Queensland Seats Slip Away from Greens in Major Setback

The Greens are on track to lose the three Queensland seats they gained in the 2022 election in a significant blow for the party.

The Greens have experienced a slight uptick in their primary vote, inching up from 12 percent in 2022 to 12.48 percent. However, their backing in the three Queensland seats they captured during the last election—Griffith, Ryan, and Brisbane—has notably waned.

Should current trends continue across these seats, it would stand in stark contrast to the historic four-seat victory the Greens achieved in the previous state election, which even led to Queensland being nicknamed ‘Greens-land’.

In Brisbane, ALP candidate Madonna Jarrett is on track to win as 50.03 percent of votes have been tallied. The LNP’s Trevor Evans is trailing closely with 32.7 percent of the votes counted.

Greens incumbent Stephen Bates is polling third with 27.4 per cent, marking a devastating result for the party.

In Griffith, figures suggest Labor is poised to reclaim the seat from the Greens in a tight contest—an unexpected shift given the Greens held it with a 10.4 per cent margin.

Labor is leading with 35.1 per cent of votes and the Greens have 33.3 per cent with 40.99 per cent of votes having been counted.

This signals a tragic loss for Greens MP Max Chandler-Mather, whose campaign revolved around him being a renter and connecting with young Australians.

Meanwhile, the seat of Ryan remains too close to call, despite 49.83 per cent counted.

Liberal candidate Maggie Forrest is polling just 2.3 per cent ahead of incumbent Elizabeth Watson-Brown, with Labor’s Rebecca Hack sitting at 28.2 per cent.

Following the night’s disappointing results, speeches from the three Queensland Greens MPs were cancelled.

Max Chandler-Mather, Stephen Bates, and Elizabeth Watson-Brown had been scheduled to address supporters around 9pm at a crowded event in Woolloongabba in inner Brisbane.

Labor had heavily targeted the state after entering the race holding just five Queensland seats, while the Liberals also contested several key electorates, creating a three-way contest the Greens have struggled to dominate.

The warning signs were already present during the recent Queensland state election, where despite maintaining their overall vote share, the Greens lost the seat of South Brisbane and saw a swing against them in their only remaining seat.

Potential losses in Victoria 

In the Victorian seat of Willis, Greens were initially looking likely to claim the seat with a 7.57 per cent swing, however, figures indicate that might not be enough to win.

But with 64.96 per cent of votes counted, Labor incumbent Peter Khalil is looking to retain the seat over Greens challenger Samantha Ratnam by a margin of three per cent.

Greens leader Adam Bandt is expected to hold onto his Melbourne seat, where he leads with 42.2 percent of the vote, putting him 12.3 per cent ahead of Labor candidate Sarah Witty, however, figures indicate it’s too close to call.

The question that remains is what caused the Greens to lose grip of the three Queensland seats. 

The Greens have expanded on their policy framework since the 2022 election, focusing on economic inequality, dental care and housing affordability crisis. 

Trying to set themselves apart from Labor, they pushed for rent caps and reduction of tax benefits for property investors. 

Their stance led to a prolonged standoff with Labor in Parliament, where they repeatedly delayed the passage of the government’s housing bills—causing significant frustration within the government. 

Earlier this year, both the government and opposition figures accused the Greens of using the Israel-Palestine conflict for political gain by spreading misinformation and encouraging antisemitism and extremist rhetoric.