Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock during a press conference
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RBA Governor Michele Bullock has expressed concerns that the upcoming vital inflation data might not be as low as anticipated next week, which could complicate the likelihood of an interest rate reduction in August.

However, such a call rests on crucial quarterly data released next week, and Bullock warned that figure could come in higher than hoped.

Speaking at the Anika Foundation fundraising lunch on Thursday, she mentioned, “We anticipate a slight decrease in trimmed mean inflation for the June quarter on a year-ended basis.”

“However, the monthly CPI Indicator data, which are volatile, suggest that the fall may not be quite as much as we forecast back in May.

“We still think it will show inflation declining slowly towards 2.5 per cent, but we are looking for data to support this expectation.”

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock during a press conference
Governor of the RBA Michele Bullock is remaining coy on whether an interest rate cut is on the way.(Dominic Lorrimer)

The news won’t be well received by many Australians who have been hit by high interest rates and cost-of-living pressures for the last three years.

However, while acknowledging the stress many Australians are under, Bullock said cost-of-living relief was on the way.

“Encouragingly, as inflation has slowed, the labour market has eased only gradually and the unemployment rate is relatively low,” she said.

She also acknowledged that Australians are still experiencing significant cost-of-living pressures, with current average prices substantially rising compared to a few years ago.

“That is why we want to make sure that inflation remains low and stable from here on in.” 

“Low and stable inflation is good for households, good for jobs, good for communities and good for the economy.”

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