The Process of Choosing the Dalai Lama's Successor and China's Role in It

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“But here in Australia, we have the opportunity to learn our culture, religion, and language, which I think is really important so we can continue the Tibetan cause.”

A group of school students in blue uniforms stand with their hands folded in prayer.

The Tibetan Language and Culture School students in Sydney rehearse a traditional Tibetan dance. Source: SBS News

For Tibetan human rights campaigner Kyinzom Dhongdue, the upcoming celebrations bring “both hope and urgency”, with the future of Tibetan spiritual leadership remaining uncertain.

The Dalai Lama will address a major three-day gathering of Buddhist religious figures this week, as his followers await details about his succession.

Who is the Dalai Lama?

His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama, Tenzin Gyatso, is the spiritual leader of Tibet.

Born to a farming family on 6 July 1935 in north-eastern Tibet, he was recognised as the “reincarnation” of the previous Dalai Lama at the age of two.

He fled Tibet in 1959 after a failed uprising against Chinese communist rule. Since then, he has been living in Dharamshala, in northern India.

The Dalai Lama also traditionally carries political and cultural significance in the region. In 2011, he handed his political role to a democratically elected government, ending a 368-year-old tradition of being both the spiritual and temporal head of Tibetans.

How is the Dalai Lama’s successor chosen?

Traditionally, the Dalai Lama is identified after death, with senior monks seeking a child believed to be their reincarnation, guided by dreams, visions, and ritual tests.

Kevin Carrico, a senior lecturer in Chinese studies at Monash University, said: “The idea is that after one Dalai Lama passes away, the spirit of that Dalai Lama is reincarnated in a child born within one year of the Dalai Lama’s death.”

This was the practice when Tibetans were able to make their own decisions about reincarnation and succession, Carrico said.

“Since the incorporation of Tibet into the People’s Republic of China in the 1950s — despite various guarantees that there would be no interference in the political or religious systems of Tibet — it would be a dramatic understatement to say there has been unprecedented interference in the political and religious systems of Tibet,” he said.

Why is China involved?

Zoë Bedford, executive officer of the Australia Tibet Council, said the Tibetan diaspora is “very anxious”.

“So much depends on His Holiness the Dalai Lama,” she said.

“The reason for such high anxiety is because we know that the Chinese government is trying to interfere with the reincarnation process for the next Dalai Lama,” she said.

In his memoir released in March, the Dalai Lama stated for the first time that his successor would be born in the “free world”, signalling a reincarnation outside China’s control.

He has previously only said that he could reincarnate outside Tibet, possibly in India, where he lives in exile.

“Since the purpose of a reincarnation is to carry on the work of the predecessor, the new Dalai Lama will be born in the free world so that the traditional mission of the Dalai Lama — that is, to be the voice for universal compassion, the spiritual leader of Tibetan Buddhism, and the symbol of Tibet embodying the aspirations of the Tibetan people — will continue,” the Dalai Lama stated in his memoir.

But China views the Dalai Lama as a separatist and political exile who has “no right to represent the Tibetan people at all”, a spokesperson for China’s foreign minister said when asked about the book during a news conference.

China insists it will choose his successor, but the Dalai Lama has said any successor named by China would not be respected.

China’s foreign ministry has previously said reincarnation of living Buddhas, including the Dalai Lama, “must comply with Chinese laws and regulations”.

‘The stakes are high’

Dhongdue said the Dalai Lama has taken “proactive steps” to protect the reincarnation process.

“It is a political reality that has forced us to protect the institution and the integrity of this tradition, free from Chinese interference,” she said.

“While we have complete faith in His Holiness and the Tibetan Buddhist system in managing this challenge … the next few years and decades will be critical for Tibet and the stakes are high — politically, culturally, and spiritually.”

Carrico believes we could be “looking at the very real possibility of a conflict between a sort of Tibetan-chosen successor and a Chinese-chosen successor”.

“That would obviously create extreme tensions in Tibet and in global society more broadly,” he said.

Dhongdue said this would be “nonsensical and dangerous”.

“Beijing has to know that this is not going to work. The Tibetan people’s bond with His Holiness will always remain strong. If Beijing tries to install a fake Dalai Lama … that person will not be accepted by the Tibetan people as well as the global Buddhist community — and neither should the international community,” she said.

In 1995, following the death of the Panchen Lama — the second-highest Tibetan Buddhist figure — the Dalai Lama recognised a six-year-old boy as his reincarnation.

He was taken into what Chinese authorities described as protective custody and has not been seen since. Another child was named the reincarnated.

Bedford expects “great concern” about the safety of any future successor not aligned with China.

“If another person or an adult is chosen to be the successor of the Dalai Lama, there’ll be concern about their welfare,” she said.

What else has the Dalai Lama said?

The Dalai Lama has previously said the line of spiritual leaders might end with him.

He has not ruled out the possibility of an adult — or a woman — as his successor, controversially saying in a 2019 interview that “if a female Dalai Lama comes, she should be more attractive”. He later apologised and clarified the remarks.

The Dalai Lama will turn 90 on Sunday and has said he would consult senior monks and others at this time to share possible clues on where his successor could be found following his death.

“The rest of my life I will dedicate for the benefit of others, as much as possible, as extensive as possible,” the Dalai Lama told a gathering of his followers on Monday.

“There will be some kind of a framework within which we can talk about the continuation of the institution of the Dalai Lamas.”

Dolma Tsering Teykhang, the deputy speaker of the Tibetan parliament-in-exile in Dharamshala, said it was important for the world to hear directly from the Dalai Lama on the issue.

“China is trying to grab this institution … for its political purpose,” she said.

“We want the incarnation of the Dalai Lama to be born not only for the survival of Tibet as a distinct culture, religion and nation, but also for the well-being of the whole humanity.”

The religious conference this week, being held for the first time since 2019, will be attended by more than 100 Tibetan Buddhist leaders.

— With additional reporting by Reuters