Wall Street has a saying: “Trump Always Chickens Out,” often abbreviated as TACO.
However, navigating relations with Iran is far from straightforward.
Earlier today, President Trump announced that the U.S. has been in contact with Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Baghar Ghalibaf.
“The United States is engaged in serious talks with a new, more reasonable regime to conclude our military presence in Iran,” Trump shared on Truth Social.
Yet, Ghalibaf quickly dismissed these assertions.
“The enemy spreads its desires as news while simultaneously menacing our nation. Big mistake,” he responded.
“God willing, the people of Iran, under the leadership of the Supreme Leader, will make the enemy regret the aggression and reclaim their rights.”
Ghalibaf suggested investors assume the opposite of what Trump has said is the truth.
“Basically, it’s a reverse indicator,” he said.
“Do the opposite: If they pump it, short it. If they dump it, go long.”
Wall Street didn’t take Ghalibaf’s advice overnight. After Trump’s comments, the Dow Jones jumped.
In anticipation of a major TACO move from the president, Deutsche Bank has constructed a “stress index” to predict when investors should get in.
“If the index rises, the probability of a strategic adjustment by the government increases,” Deutsche Bank’s Maximilian Uleer said.
“If all four ‘pain points’ deteriorate simultaneously, the motivation for an adjustment becomes very strong.”
If codified in Iranian law, all tankers passing through the strait will need to pay a substantial fee.
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