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Over a third of Tuvalu’s population is keen on securing an Australian visa, driven by the severe climate challenges their small Pacific nation faces, like rising sea levels.
On 16 June, the Australian government launched its first ballot, inviting Tuvaluans to express interest in a special visa program, established through the Falepili Union treaty between the two nations.
This visa permits up to 280 Tuvaluans each year to reside, work, and pursue education in Australia.
With Tuvalu’s population around 11,000, more than a third have initiated applications.

Based on the latest data from Reuters, as of Sunday, 1,124 individuals have registered, with accompanying family members bringing the total to 4,052.

Communities facing ‘real challenges’

For some time, scientists have feared climate change may make the Pacific Island nation uninhabitable within 80 years.
By 2050, NASA scientists project daily tides will submerge half the main atoll of Funafuti — home to 60 per cent of Tuvalu’s residents, where villagers cling to a strip of land as narrow as 20 metres.
Tuvalu’s mean elevation is just two metres above sea level.

The nation has witnessed a 15cm rise in sea levels over the last 30 years, which is 1.5 times the world average. To counter this, they have constructed seven hectares of artificial land, with plans for more, aiming to keep these areas above the tide by 2100.
‘Alopi Latukefu, director of the Global Centre for Social Justice and Advocacy Leadership, said climate change is already being felt across Tuvalu’s nine atolls scattered across the Pacific between Australia and Hawaii.
“We are seeing these communities faced with real challenges in the community from the perspective of not just inundation from the sea level rise, but also in terms of food security, water security in these communities, the impact from regular events — whether they be king tides or more serious events — that are creating a very difficult situation,” he said.
He said it’s important to understand that not everyone wants to leave Tuvalu.
“The decision to leave is a very big one and a very important one, and one which is tied to a range of other factors as well to support their families, to provide a pathway for a future, to have access to education, to have access to things that are part of the opportunity that Australia represents.”

But some may feel they have little choice.

A ‘very generous visa’

Professor Stephen Howes, director of the Development Policy Centre at the Australian National University, said those selected for the visa will have significant rights to live, work and study in Australia.
“It is a very generous visa,” he said.
“Most migrants to Australia have to endure a waiting period of several years before they’re eligible for benefits. But that’s not the case for migrants under this visa.”

Howes said successful applicants would have access to Medicare and others including family benefits and support to study.

Four men wearing colourful shirts are pictured, holding documents.

In 2023, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (second from left) and Tuvalu Prime Minister Kausea Natano (right) announced the Falepili Union treaty. Source: AAP / Ben McKay

Professor Jane McAdam, director of the Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law at UNSW Sydney, described the Falepili Union treaty as the world’s first bilateral agreement that references climate change.

“The visa itself doesn’t mention the words climate change at all, but the treaty pursuant to which it was created is framed very much around the existential threat that climate change poses in our region,” she said.
“It was an element that the government of Tuvalu specifically requested from Australia.”
Announcing the treaty in 2023, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said the agreement “reflects Tuvalu’s special circumstances as a low-lying nation that’s particularly impacted, its very existence, by the threat of climate change”.

‘It’s not a climate visa’
The pact has several elements, including climate mitigation and adaptation, the migration pathway, and security.
Howes said while the visa will benefit those selected in the lottery, Australia has also gained some strategic advantages through the Falepili Union.
“What Australia got out of the agreement was a sort of veto power over Tuvalu’s security arrangements — or, specifically, security partnerships,” he said.

“Under the agreement, Tuvalu has to seek Australia’s permission before entering into an agreement with the third country in relation to security, and that’s clearly aimed at China.”

Latukefu welcomed the new visa, but said Australia needs to take stronger action to address climate change.
“It’s not a climate visa, let’s be very clear about this. It’s under the Falepili [Union] treaty … a treaty of friendship with Tuvalu,” he said.

“It’s often referred to as a climate visa, but it’s one that is not framed in that context. That’s partly because of Australia’s need to not frame things in that context because of our own interests.”

Latukefu said it’s important that Tuvaluans are supported to maintain their connection to their lands and culture.
McAdam agrees ongoing mobility will be important feature of the new visa.
“I think the proof will be in the pudding in terms of what actually happens when the first, second, third groups of people arrive — how well supported they feel once they’re here, how much they are facilitated to create their own cultural facilities and community supports here,” she said.
Ballot applications close on 18 July, with an annual cap of 280 visas designed to ensure migration to Australia does not cause brain drain from Tuvalu, officials said when the treaty was announced in 2023.
— With additional reporting from Reuters
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