"Widespread Concern Over Potential Conflict Escalation in Iran"

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The sound of airstrikes might have fallen silent in Iran and Israel amid a fragile ceasefire in place, but some activists in Iran fear that another “war” inside the country may have only just begun — against its own citizens.

“As usual, the Islamic Republic lost on the battlefield to another force and is taking revenge on us, the people,” an activist in Tehran, who requested anonymity, told SBS News.

“A large number of [people] were arrested without reason … some of those arrested were released after a few hours or days, but many are still under arrest, and we have no news about them.

“The war in the region has just ended, but our war with the Islamic Republic has just started.”

‘Shift the blame’

Iranian media has carried several reports of arrests and executions of Iranian citizens in the days following the eruption of conflict between Israel and Iran.

Just two days after the 13 June attacks, state media reported that the head of the Islamic Republic’s judiciary had instructed its officials to punish “elements that disrupt the security and peace of the people”, whether that’s “physical” security or “psychological” security.

This instruction has been felt by activists inside the country.

“Over the past 12 days [of conflict], the only thing in Iran that hasn’t been shut down and has remained systematically active was the execution of Iranian citizens,” another activist, who requested anonymity, told SBS News.

“These days, the regime tries to shift the blame for its security failures onto the people, using terms like ‘infiltration’ or ‘domestic spies’.”

According to the country’s Fars News agency, at least 700 people were arrested in the past 12 days for crimes related to collaboration with Israel.

Six people have reportedly been executed in recent days, accused of “spying for Israel”. Some of them were already on death row before the conflict started.

According to the Centre for Human Rights in Iran, at least 54 individuals were in prison waiting for death sentences to be carried out before the conflict began.

SBS News has approached the Iranian embassy for comment, but they haven’t responded at the time of publication.

‘I heard lots of others have been arrested’

Ehsan Hakimi, an Iranian-Australian anti-regime activist and head of the Iranian-Australian Republicans organisation, has been in touch with activists in Iran in recent years in order to “help them and support them” in their push for regime change.

In recent days, an activist in Iran who was in touch with Hakimi was arrested and released.

“I heard lots of others have been arrested,” Hakimi told SBS News.

He said the regime is trying to “warn” these activists by arresting them, to prevent them from coming “to the streets” and protesting.

“They are trying to convince them that we’re monitoring you … they want to prevent them to connect together and unite together and do their demonstration or do any activity against the regime, while the regime is in the weakest situation.”

A man in a dark blue collared shirt looks down at a smartphone in his left hand.

Ehsan Hakimi has been in Australia for 12 years and is working with some activists inside Iran. Credit: SBS

According to Amnesty International, there are growing fears of arbitrary executions of individuals accused of espionage for Israel.

Kyinzom Dhongdue, advocacy manager at Amnesty International Australia, told SBS News some of the people have been arrested and charged after “grossly unfair trials”.

“These are conducted in the Revolutionary Courts, [which are] devoid of any independence and transparency. People do not have access to lawyers of their choosing. And many of the confessions were forced under duress, under torture,” Dhongdue said.

“The government is weaponising the death penalty to instil fear and stifle any form of dissent during these very tense times in Iran.

“[The] death penalty is used by very repressive governments … and people who are charged [with] espionage have often been accused of these so-called crimes on very vague, broad national security terms.”

SBS News has contacted the Iranian embassy in Australia for a response to these claims.

A woman in a blue collared shirt looks forward with a serious expression on her face.

Kyinzom Dhongdue said Amnesty International was “calling on the Iranian authorities to halt all plans to execute, especially the eight people who are at imminent risk of execution”. Credit: SBS

‘When the bombs stop falling’

Kylie Moore-Gilbert, a research fellow at Macquarie University who spent two years in prison in Iran, also expressed concerns about an uptick in domestic suppression.

“When the bombs stop falling and when the hot part of this conflict comes to an end, the regime is almost inevitably going to turn its attention to the domestic population and they’ll see a wave of crackdown,” Moore-Gilbert told SBS News.

“It’s very possible that the regime will seek retribution against those in its population that it perceives to have not been sufficiently behind it during the conflict, particularly people posting on social media.”

Kylie Moore-Gilbert said she was “really worried about the fate of a number of political prisoners who’ve been in prison for a number of years now, some with death sentences for espionage”. Credit: SBS

Hours after US President Donald Trump announced the ceasefire on Tuesday (AEST), Asghar Jahangir, a spokesperson for the regime’s judiciary, told a state broadcaster that the country’s espionage law was being updated as it “may not cover many of the [current] cases”.

“Today, enemy infiltrators work in different ways, and if we try to prosecute these individuals using the previous law that defined espionage, we may encounter limitations,” he said.

“A plan has been envisaged whereby infiltrators who tried to play on enemy territory during these times will be dealt with exemplary punishments.”

One day later, the Telegram channel of Hossein Ronaghi, a prominent Iranian human rights activist, reported that he had been arrested by Islamic Republic forces.

“The regime’s going to be very worried about its domestic survival … this is probably the weakest the Islamic Republic has ever been since its inception and might actually start an uprising or start to agitate for change,” Moore-Gilbert said.

“I think we can expect a really firm, brutal, decisive response, at least at the opening, from the Islamic Republic.”

He also said “solidarity and unity among Iranian people from different [ethnic] groups and ages has solidified” amid the recent conflict.

Moore-Gilbert said: “I think everybody’s in danger in Iran at the moment, including regime supporters, because of the amount of paranoia that’s going to ensue within those ranks as well.”

But for activists inside Iran, the coming days and weeks will likely be clouded in anxiety.

In a message received by SBS News, an activist in Iran, who requested anonymity, said: “In authoritarian systems, wars are neither started by the will of the people nor sustained with their consent.

“Yet they are always settled with their lives, their bread, and the future of the nation.”