5.9k Share this

Although most of our televisions will be tuned to The Masters come Thursday, the Europa League quarterfinals will be kicking off across the pond.

Headlining the final-eight slate will undoubtedly be Red Bull Leipzig vs. Atalanta BC, but I’m choosing to look elsewhere for my best bets.

So in order to hopefully help boost that bankroll for The Masters and MLB Opening Day, here are my two best bets across the four Europa League quarterfinal matches.

Best Bet #1 – FC Barcelona Goal-Line (-1) vs. Eintracht Frankfurt (+130), DraftKings Sportsbook

Since crashing out of the Champions League in the group stage, Barcelona has absolutely dominated Europa League play.

In four continental fixtures, manager Xavi’s squad has produced at least 1.3 expected goals in all four and has simultaneously allowed under 1.0 expected goal in three of those fixtures. Plus, it arrives at Thursday’s visit to Frankfurt on a 13-match unbeaten run (W10-D3) and has created at least one expected goal in all 13 matches.

On the flip-side, its defense has conceded more than one expected goal only three times and is due for some positive defensive regression (10 goals against on 8.8 expected in those 13 matches). While its attack has overperformed its underlying metrics – 33 goals on 27.2 expected – its attack is creating almost 0.3 xG/90 more than its season-long average.


Check out the best sports betting sites and apps


Now, that potent Barcelona attack receives an Eintracht Frankfurt defense that has conceded the sixth-most expected goals of the final eight teams in the competition. Further, it has struggled defensively this season against top Bundesliga sides + top Europa League teams. In 12 fixtures against sides ranked 2-7 in last year’s Bundesliga table and Europa League knockout round participants this year, Frankfurt is conceding 1.67 xG/90 minutes, per fbref.com.

Additionally, it hasn’t kept a single one of those 12 sides under one expected goal. With Barcelona’s defense playing as well as it is, expect an easy victory for the visitors tomorrow.

Andriy Yarmolenko celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates
Andriy Yarmolenko celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates.
Action Images via Reuters/Ed Sykes

Best Bet #2 – West Ham United/Lyon Both Teams to Score “Yes” (-135), BetMGM

Although this prop failed to cash in West Ham’s two round of 16 legs against Sevilla, the underlying metrics tell a different story.

Both legs featured at least one expected goal from each side, with West Ham underperforming on its underlying metrics drastically (two goals on 4.1 expected). Plus, the Hammers have proved a very reliable BTTS side at home in the Premier League. The “yes” side has cashed in four of its last six domestic fixtures and 12 of 16 overall.

Further, of the eight remaining Europa League sides, West Ham has notched the third-most expected goals. As for Lyon, it has produced the second-most xG in the competition and has cashed the “yes” side of BTTS in three of its last four continental matches.

I’m fairly certain West Ham will be able to score here as Lyon has conceded the fifth-most road expected goals in Ligue 1 and is due for a sizable amount of negative defensive regression (19 road goals against on 25 road xG against).

But, it’s also creating the third-most road expected goals, so Lyon should be able to catch out a West Ham defense that has conceded at least one expected goal in six straight fixtures.

Add in that West Ham’s defense hasn’t kept a deserved clean sheet since early February and I believe this price should be closer to -155.

Source: NYPOST

5.9k Share this
You May Also Like
Sad loss for Hollywood: Actress Marnie Schulenberg has died at the age of 37 it was shared on Wednesday. The star passed away after a long battle with stage four metastatic breast cancer, according to The Hollywood Reporter. Seen in 2012

Marnie Schulenberg of As The World Turns dies at age 37

Actress Marnie Schulenberg has died at the age of 37 after a…

‘We Need … Trump’s Border Policies’

Republican legislators in the House agree that a GOP majority in 2023…

Biden’s Labor Chief Urges Congress to Import More Foreign Workers

The nation’s Democratic labor secretary is urging Republicans and Democrats to import…

Xi Jinping’s Attack Dog Yang Jiechi Claims Chinese Economy ‘Steady’ as Lockdowns Destroy Growth

High-ranking Chinese Politburo official Yang Jiechi — the hardline attack dog China…
Zara Tindall joined a slew of A-listers as she attended the annual Tusk Ball 2022 at the Natural History Museum in central London

Zara Tindall joins brother Peter Phillips at Tusk Ball

Siblings night out! Zara Tindall is elegant in a lilac and grey…

Ministers prepare plan to help three million of the lowest paid, relief on energy bills

A triple tax cut to ease the cost of living crisis is…

‘We Have Put Up a Good Fight’

Pennsylvania Senate Candidate Kathy Barnette did not deliver a concession speech on…

When Bashing Putin for Ukraine War, George W. Bush Accidentally Calls Iraq Invasion ‘Wholly Unjustified and Brutal’

Former President George W. Bush made a revealing gaffe on Wednesday evening…