In a dramatic turn of events, the Cabinet has decided to maintain its support for Prime Minister Keir Starmer, at least for the time being. This decision came after intense discussions over the past 24 hours, where the future of the Prime Minister hung in the balance among his senior colleagues.

The situation was precarious. Throughout Sunday night and into Monday morning, Cabinet members hesitated to publicly endorse the Prime Minister, leaving Starmer in a tense wait within the confines of Downing Street. During these critical hours, the Cabinet was engaged in private deliberations, considering the possibility of compelling Starmer to step down and discussing contingency plans in the event of an abrupt resignation.

By Monday afternoon, a statement from Downing Street declared that the Prime Minister was “getting on with the job with the support of the Cabinet.” Despite this assertion, no Cabinet member had yet come forward with a public endorsement of Starmer, creating an air of uncertainty.

In an attempt to rally his team, Starmer reportedly delivered an upbeat speech to his staff, though the absence of visible support from his colleagues remained noticeable. The tension reached a peak when news from Scotland added pressure to the situation.

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar’s announcement of an emergency press conference at 2:30 pm signaled a potential turning point. It became evident that Sarwar intended to call for the Prime Minister’s resignation, which ultimately prompted the Cabinet to solidify their backing, at least for now.

The Cabinet’s hand was finally forced by news from north of the border. When Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar announced an emergency press conference at 2.30pm, it quickly became clear he was going to call on the PM to resign.

The move forced them to make a snap decision on whether to stick with Sir Keir or risk tumbling into a chaotic leadership contest for which none of the main candidates are truly ready.

Keir Starmer leaving No 10 last night… for now his position appears safe, writes Jason Groves

The Cabinet’s hand was finally forced by news from north of the border suggesting Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar was about to call for Sir Keir’s resignation

One minute before Mr Sarwar was due to get to his feet in Glasgow, the Deputy PM David Lammy finally broke the Cabinet’s silence, taking to X to urge colleagues to ‘support the Prime Minister’.

In the following hour, every single member of the Cabinet, who had had so little supportive to say for so long, piled in behind him to voice their backing for the Dear Leader.

Mr Sarwar’s criticisms were devastating – all the more so as they came from a long-time ally of Sir Keir. There had been, he said, ‘too many mistakes’ in No 10. ‘I have to be honest about failure wherever I see it,’ he said. ‘The distraction has to end, the leadership has to change.’

If one or two senior ministers had followed suit – as Mr Sarwar had suggested they might – Sir Keir’s troubled premiership would have been over.

But no one is fully ready for a leadership contest that threatens to be chaotic.

Andy Burnham remains marooned in Manchester, unable to stand.

Angela Rayner is on manoeuvres – yesterday it emerged she has already set up a ‘Rayner for leader website’. But she still has an HMRC investigation hanging over her and would potentially be asking Labour to replace one scandal-ridden PM with another.

Allies of Wes Streeting fret that his long friendship with Peter Mandelson could derail his leadership campaign in an atmosphere where the disgraced peer is totally toxic. Yesterday, he was offering to show Labour MPs his messages to Lord Mandelson to prove they are innocuous. But he could use more time for the Mandelson scandal to subside.

Other hopefuls such as Ed Miliband, deputy Labour leader Lucy Powell and Home Office minister Jess Phillips are now eyeing their chances. Even the unknown armed forces minister Al Carns, who has been in politics for less than two years, has let it be known that he fancies a shot at the job.

The Cabinet took the collective view yesterday that plunging the party into an unpredictable leadership contest now could be disastrous, particularly with vital local elections round the corner in May.

But Sir Keir’s survival prospects remain dire. On Sunday, his talismanic chief of staff Morgan McSweeney left his side for the first time since he became Labour leader six years ago.

On Monday, morning his communications chief Tim Allan – the fourth person to hold the role in 18 months – followed him out of No 10’s famous black door.

This least political of prime ministers suddenly has no-one left to tell him what to think or what to say.

He remains engulfed by criticism of his disastrous decision to appoint Lord Mandelson as US ambassador.

And there is no escape on the horizon. Parliament has ordered the release of tens of thousands of documents surrounding the decision, along with messages exchanged with Lord Mandelson by his ministers and senior aides.

Whitehall sources say it will take weeks or even months before the documents are all in the public domain – prolonging the agony for a PM who wants nothing more than to consign his disgraced former friend to history.

As the events of Monday clearly demonstrated, Sir Keir’s future is no longer entirely within his own hands.

The Cabinet’s belated – and frankly unconvincing – show of loyalty has brought him a stay of execution.

But it could easily be withdrawn when the circumstances are better suited for a leadership contest, such as after the local elections in May.

All it would take is a puff of wind to blow the PM over now. And he is riding through a storm.