5.9k Share this

Russia’s war in Ukraine is unlikely to have a uniform effect across Southeast Asia, says Anthony Nafte of CLSA.

Many economies in the region are net oil importers and are set to come under “quite a lot of pressure,” Nafte told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Wednesday. He noted the recent spikes in commodity prices have been “much higher” than anticipated and could be potentially prolonged.

Commodity prices have surged since Russia invaded Ukraine, with oil prices hitting levels not seen since 2008. Russia is a major oil producer while Ukraine is a big exporter of other commodities such as wheat and corn.

Still, Indonesia could “actually do reasonably well” in the current environment due to its commodity-driven economy, according to Nafte, who is a senior economist at CLSA.

“More than 50% of their exports are derived from commodities, and now you’ve got a position where your commodity prices are going to stay higher for longer,” Nafte said.

He said, for example, Russia is currently the second largest supplier of coal to China and disruptions could push Beijing to turn to Indonesia to fill the gap.

“Indonesia’s going to benefit from the price effect but also in terms of volume,” Nafte said.

Stock picks and investing trends from CNBC Pro:

Thailand’s economy, on the other hand, sits at “the other extreme,” he said.

Current conditions present continued headwinds for exports and tourism, Thailand’s largest economic drivers, “through the rest of the year,” the economist said.

“This disruption to global trade will be a big headwind for exports,” he said. “In terms of the tourism revival, I think 2022 is too early. There’s still going to be a lot of issues.”

Thailand’s balance of payments also faces the “biggest vulnerability” among emerging Southeast Asian economies, he added.

“They had a big current account deficit last year because of that loss of tourism revenues, and their exchange rate looks particularly vulnerable,” Nafte said.

Source: DailyMail

5.9k Share this
You May Also Like

There Will Be ‘High-Level Prosecutions of People Close to Donald Trump’

On Thursday, during MSNBC’s “All In,” former Attorney General Eric Holder predicted…

Rising Monkeypox Cases Suggest It’s Spread ‘Pretty Wide’

Appearing Friday on CNBC’s Squawk Box, Pfizer board member and former FDA Commissioner…

Trump says Elon Musk’s takeover of Twitter is probably illegal

Donald Trump has lashed out at Elon Musk, calling the billionaire’s $44…

He Has ‘Reduced Our Ability to Be Energy Independent’

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) spoke about the record-high gas prices the…

Biden Releases 954K Border Crossers into U.S. Since Taking Office — Twice the Population of Miami, Florida

Since taking office in late January 2021, President Joe Biden has released…

Teetering on the Edge of a Bear Market

Been Down So Long, It Looks Like Up To Me is the…

A British toddler who died after contracting a tummy bug while on holiday

British toddler who died of a tummy bug in Turkey weeks before…

Illegal Alien Charged with Raping His Daughter, Giving Her Chlamydia

An illegal alien has been accused of raping his daughter, a toddler,…