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Coronavirus cases are now falling in virtually every area of England, official figures show as the Omicron wave continues to collapse with deaths six times lower than in the second wave.
Some 6,519 out of 6,790 neighbourhoods (96 per cent) around the country recorded a fall in infections in the week to January 11, according to the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA).
It means 54million people are living in places with declining case rates now just eight weeks after Omicron burst onto the scene in late November and sent infections to record levels. Parts of Castle Point, Shropshire and Bexley have seen infections fall by more than 70 per cent week-on-week.
Deaths – which are the biggest lagging indicator of the trend in infections – are still rising slowly but there are an average of just 212 per day now compared to 1,200 per day at the peak of Alpha wave last January, despite three times more infections this wave.
The weakened link between infections and less severe outcomes is down to protection from the vaccines, natural immunity, antivirals and Omicron, which is thought to be intrinsically milder than older strains.
This is also highlighted in intensive care rates, with 4.5 times fewer patients moved to mechanical ventilation beds and half as many patients in hospital overall.
It comes amid growing optimism among the Government, its own scientific advisers and even the World Health Organization, who say the UK is on the cusp of taming Covid.
Dr Mike Tildesley, a modeller on an influential SAGE committee, today predicted the UK would have a flu-like relationship with Covid by the end of the year. He said the country has almost reached a point where ministers could start discussing what ‘living with’ Covid would be like.
Dr David Nabarro, the WHO’s special envoy on Covid, said there was ‘light at the end of the tunnel’ for Britain amid plummeting case numbers and stable hospital rates.
Britain had one of the fastest vaccination programmes in the world, which coupled with high levels of natural immunity from sustained transmission within the community has allowed England to be one of the most open countries in Europe.
Plan B restrictions are still in place, with staff told to work from home and vaccine passports required for some events, but these are expected to be dropped by the end of the month.
Education Secretary and former vaccine tsar Nadhim Zahawi said the country’s Covid data is ‘promising’ and he is ‘confident’ restrictions can be eased later this month.
UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) data shows Covid cases are falling in 96 per cent of the country’s nearly 7,000 neighbourhoods. The maps show the number of cases per 100,000 people in each region, with darker colours equating to more infections. The first map shows case rates in the week to January 4, while the second map shows cases in the week to January 11
UKHSA data shows Covid infections fell in the week to January 11. The maps show the number of cases per 100,000 people in each part of London, with darker colours equating to more infections. The first map shows case rates in the week to January 4, while the second map shows cases in the week to January 11
The Office for National Statistics estimates the second wave took off in early September 2020 before subsiding by April 2021. Official figures show cases spiked at 76,000 during the Alpha-fuelled wave, while three times as many cases were recorded at the peak of 246,000 this winter
Despite the number of positive Covid samples registered during the third wave being three times higher than during the second wave, UKHSA data shows the number of infected patients in hospital peaked at 19,876 (red line) on January 10 2022 – half the level seen at the peak last winter, when 39,254 infected people were in hospital (yellow line)
The number of Covid patients who were moved on to mechanical ventilation beds to help with their breathing dropped over the course of the Omicron wave. Some 900 infected patients were in the critical care beds on January 4, the most recent peak (red line), compared to 4,077 on January 24 last year (yellow line) – equating to 4.5 times fewer patients
And Covid fatalities within 28 days of a positive test were six times lower at the peak this winter compared to 12 months earlier. Some 1,359 coronavirus fatalities were registered on January 19 2021 (yellow line), compared to 236 Covid deaths on January 9 2022 (red line), the most recent peak in the Omicron wave
UKHSA data shows cases fell in 6,519 of 6,790 of England’s local authorities in the week to January 11, with rates plummeting fastest in Hadleigh North in Castle Point (71.5 per cent), Bridgnorth East in Shropshire (71.2 per cent) and Albany Park in Bexley (71.1 per cent) in the week to January 11.
There were near-70 per cent falls in parts of Cumbria, Essex and Sussex.
Meanwhile, cases are continuing to double cent week-on-week in parts of Birmingham and Bradford, with positive tests inclining quickest in Bordesley Green North, Toller Lane & Infirmary and Chellow Heights.
Parts of Peterborough and Sheffield have also seen big upticks, official data shows.
But daily data signals that the Omicron wave is subsiding, with just 70,924 positive samples announced yesterday across Britain, the lowest figure in more than a month.
And despite lags in reporting confirmed cases over the weekend, case numbers have been trending downwards for 11 days.
With experts saying that the latest wave has already peaked, official data shows its impact has been a fraction of the level of the wave seen last winter.
The Office for National Statistics estimates the second wave took off in early September 2020 before subsiding by April 2021.
Official figures show cases spiked at 76,000 and nearly 40,000 patients were in hospital at one time, while more than 4,000 people required ventilators and 1,360 daily deaths were recorded at last winter’s peak.
Despite the number of positive Covid samples registered more than tripling to 246,000, hospitalisation levels and deaths over the same period are a fraction of the number seen last year.
UKHSA data shows the number of infected patients in hospital peaked at 19,876 on January 10 – half the level seen at the peak last winter.
And Omicron’s increased transmissibility led to nearly 40 per cent of Covid patients in England being so-called incidental, according to NHS England data.
It means they were not primarily being treated for the virus, suggesting the latest wave was even milder than the figures suggest.
However, record-high infection levels led to up to 50,000 NHS staff stuck at home due to the virus earlier this month, piling pressure on the health service which was forced to work with a reduced headcount.
Meanwhile, the number of Covid patients who were moved on to mechanical ventilation beds to help with their breathing dropped over the course of the Omicron wave, supporting reports that the strain causes milder illness than previous variants. However, scientists are yet to confirm whether the strain is inherently milder or vaccines are squashing rates of severe outcomes.
Some 900 infected patients were in the critical care beds on January 4, the most recent peak, compared to 4,077 on January 24 last year – 4.5 times fewer patients.
UKHSA data shows cases are falling in 6,519 of 6,790 of England’s local authorities, with rates plummeting fastest in Hadleigh North in Castle Point (71.5 per cent), Bridgnorth East in Shropshire (71.2 per cent) and Albany Park in Bexley (71.1 per cent) in the week to January 11. Infections are also tumbling in Woodbank Park in Stockport (70.7 per cent), Rayleigh South East in Rochford (70 per cent) and Belfairs in Southend-on-Sea (69.9 per cent). Dalton South in Barrow-in-Furness, Margaretting, Stock & Ramsden in Chelmsford, Fernhurst & Northchapel in Chichester and the Dales & South Skegby in Ashfield have also seen cases fall by nearly 70 per cent in a week
Meanwhile, cases are continuing to rise by up to 104 per cent week-on-week in parts of Birmingham and Bradford, with positive tests inclining quickest in Bordesley Green North, Toller Lane & Infirmary and Chellow Heights. Thornbury, Brown Royd, Canterbury and Heaton Highgate in Bradford, Central Park in Peterborough, Balsall Heath East in Birmingham and Burngreave & Grimesthorpe in Sheffield have also seen cases continue to rise by up to 83 per cent in the week to January 11. But daily data signals that the Omicron wave is subsiding, with just 70,924 positive samples announced yesterday, the lowest figure in more than a month
Figures compiled by Oxford University experts at Our World in Data, shows that while Covid cases have reached record levels across the UK in the latest wave of infections, the number of patients in hospital, on ventilators and deaths are a fraction of the level recorded in previous surges in infections
And Covid fatalities within 28 days of a positive test were six times lower at the peak this winter compared to 12 months earlier.
Some 1,359 coronavirus fatalities were registered on January 19 2021, compared to 236 Covid deaths on January 9 2022, the most recent peak in the Omicron wave. But that figure could still increase because the data isn’t final.
Experts point to the protection among Britons from the vaccine rollout – with more than nine in 10 of over-12s having at least one jab and 63 per cent of over-12s being booster – and prior infection, with around four in 10 Britons thought to have had the virus, for blunting the impact of the Omicron wave.
It comes as the number of Covid cases confirmed daily in the UK yesterday dropped to 70,924, the lowest level seen since December 14.
Cases skyrocketed over the festive period as the super transmissible variant took off, with the ONS estimating that one in 15 people in England were infected in the first week of the year.
Meanwhile, hospitalisations across the UK have flattened out, with an average of 1,983 people admitted per day in the week to January 7.
But deaths are still creeping upwards, with 236 fatalities within 28 days of testing positive recorded on January 9.
However, with between five and seven per cent of people across the UK having the virus in the first week of the year and sustained high infection levels throughout the winter, many of the coronavirus deaths will be among people who died from other causes.
Measuring Covid deaths as deaths within 28 days of testing positive has always included people who died from reasons other than the virus, but with higher numbers of people testing positive, a higher proportion of recorded Covid deaths will not be related to the virus.
Meanwhile, Dr Tildesley, who sits on an influential modelling sub-group of SAGE, said even milder variants than Omicron would emerge over the course of the year, bolstering the UK’s wall of immunity and creating an even bigger disconnect between infection numbers and hospitalisations and deaths.
Dr Tildesley, a modeller at Warwick University, said the data suggested the pandemic was ‘turning around’ following the Omicron wave, meaning ministers could start discussing what ‘living with’ Covid would be like.
Dr Tildesley added: ‘Say we get into a situation where the virus becomes very, very mild and we are living alongside it – we’re not there yet, but hopefully we will be at some point this year – then we do need to talk about not just cases but also hospital admissions and the number of people who are dying with the disease.
‘If we can get those numbers as low as possible then hopefully we can see restrictions removed and we can live alongside the virus.’
Asked about the current wave, Dr Tildesley said the figures were ‘cautiously good news’ which could indicate the virus was ‘turning around’.
He said: ‘We have had very, very high case numbers throughout late December and early January — we peaked about 200,000 at one point. We do now seem to be a little bit beyond that.’
But he warned that children returning to schools could still send Covid cases back up, with ‘another week of data’ needed before the impact was clear.
And Mr Zahawi said today that the current data was pointing in the right direction and it was looking positive Plan B measures could be lifted.
The now Education Secretary told BBC Breakfast: ‘If you look at infection rates, they remain high, hospitalisations is still high, touching 20,000 people in hospital, but it feels like they’re plateauing.
‘The good news is the number of people in ICU has been coming down, certainly in London, which was the epicentre, the level of staff absence in education has remained pretty flat, it was 8 per cent before Christmas, it’s at about 8.5 per cent at the moment.
‘So I’m confident that when we review this on the 26 of January, as we said we would do, then we’ll be in a much better place to lift some of these restrictions.
‘But it’s worth remembering that because we stuck to Plan B this economy is the most open economy in Europe.’
Source: Daily Mail
