The Albanese government has faced accusations of attempting to ‘suppress’ discussion on Australia’s significantly high immigration rates. This follows the Bureau of Statistics’ disagreement with the measurement technique used by media and economists.

Notable economists, including Leith van Onselen and Daniel Wild, have been using preliminary monthly data to highlight the recent increase in Australia’s foreign arrivals.

These economists, along with media outlets like the Daily Mail, have been sharing data on the rise in the country’s permanent and long-term admissions, which include skilled workers and international students.

Recently, the Australian Bureau of Statistics issued formal emails to economists and journalists, instructing them to cease using monthly arrival and departure data as an indicator of the nation’s migration statistics.

Mr. van Onselen, a former Treasury analyst, was one of those who received an email from the ABS media department requesting changes to his online content.

‘Regrettably, it seems the ABS, similar to many other public bodies in Australia, has become politically influenced, although I wish I’m mistaken,’ commented Mr. van Onselen.

‘I bluntly responded by requesting the ABS show where I have “misled” and questioned why the ABS appears to be trying to censor debate on immigration numbers.’ 

The ABS email said: ‘Our data experts have raised concerns about the … information used, which we’ve highlighted below.’

The emails to economists and journalists appeared to have been cut and pasted – featuring the same typo with the phrase ‘you’ve information used’ – and identical sentences. 

‘Is it possible to update the online story with these changes? 

‘Overseas arrivals and departures data, including permanent and long-term movements, should not be used as a measure of overseas migration.’

Mr van Onselen said this intervention smacked of political interference and an attempt by the ABS to ‘censor migration debate’. 

He also noted Treasury’s Centre for Population already published monthly overseas arrivals and departures data on its website as an ‘early indicator of future migration flows’.

‘So, it is okay for the Centre for Population to utilise the monthly net permanent and long-term arrivals data as a leading indicator of migration, but not for the media to do likewise?

‘It appears that somebody within the government has strong-armed the ABS into going after media outlets for criticising the federal government for failing to control immigration.’

The reason monthly figures are used is that it takes four months before more comprehensive quarterly population data, for the same period, is released.

The preliminary data point is used as a gauge of people moving to Australia permanently or for at least a year or more, based on what incoming arrivals declare on their incoming passenger forms.

In summarising the monthly data, economists and media outlets like Daily Mail have left out short-term arrivals, like international tourists, and focused on permanent and long-term overseas arrivals.

During the last financial year, this monthly data showed 457,560 people moving to Australia to live, on a net basis with departures factored in.

This was significantly higher than the 335,000 level for 2024-25 forecast in the pre-election March Budget and could contribute to Australia’s housing crisis.

However, the ABS argued this count was ‘derived from traveller declarations and are not contingent on their residency status prior to travel’. 

While an international student is regarded as a long-term arrival, an ABS spokesman said the monthly data could count an individual more than once, and therefore inflate the net overseas arrival number.

‘For example, a person living in Australia for three years on a temporary visa, can count as a long-term visitor arrival many times during their time residing in Australia even though they only migrated here once,’ he said.

Daniel Wild, the deputy executive director of the Institute of Public Affairs think tank, said it appeared the government was trying to shut down debate.

‘It seems highly unusual that the ABS would publish data and then complain when it is used to uncover what is going on in Australia,’ he told the Daily Mail.

‘It appears the ABS has been sent out by the Treasurer to shut down debate about the federal government’s failed, unpopular mass migration program.

‘While “net permanent and long-term arrivals” and “net overseas migration” differ slightly, they remain closely related measures. 

‘They have been an accurate statistical guide which has uncovered Australia’s unplanned migration crisis.’

The ABS declined to say if there was political interference. The offices of Treasurer Jim Chalmers and Assistant Treasury Minister Andrew Leigh declined to comment.  

But Mr Wild said it appeared the ABS was trying to divert attention away from the immigration crisis. 

‘It would be highly inappropriate for sections of the ABS to be running cover for the federal government to try and divert attention away from Australia’s out-of-control migration system,’ he said.

‘The ABS needs to think very carefully about making itself a political target. 

‘The ABS can either stick to its role as an independent statistical agency, or it will blow its credibility by politicising itself.

‘There is no place for such political interference from an organisation that must be seen at all times as strictly impartial.’

The most recent quarterly population data showed net overseas migration at 340,800 in 2024.

But the monthly arrivals and departures data for the same period showed 444,480 arrivals.

That, however, isn’t the only piece of ABS data with big fluctuations.

The monthly consumer price index indicator frequently produces different figures to quarterly inflation data. 

But economists and the media cite those figures to provide a more timely update on price pressures in the economy, instead of waiting for more comprehensive data.

The ABS emailed Daily Mail this week to complain about its coverage of monthly overseas arrivals and departures data, with the message featuring some identical sentences as an email sent to Mr van Onselen.

But the ABS is yet to raise issues about this media outlet citing monthly inflation indicator data, even though that data series is being discontinued in November. 

The net overseas migration figure for the March quarter isn’t being released until September 18. The June quarter data is being published on December 18 – or four months after the preliminary monthly overseas arrivals and departures data for the same period.