Vice President JD Vance is currently seen as the frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028. However, if the party opts to replace him with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, it could present a significant challenge to the Democrats.

Marco Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants who settled in Florida seeking the American Dream, brings what Vance lacks: a strong connection with Hispanic voters, extensive legislative experience, and a robust background in foreign policy.

Rubio’s intelligence and eloquence make him a formidable opponent, which should worry the Democrats.

Speaking from experience as a lifelong Democrat and a candidate for Chicago Mayor, I’ve witnessed with concern how my party has been sidetracked by unproductive fixations. The most problematic of these is the focus on identity politics, which some candidates have embraced as their main platform.

What began as a noble pursuit of civil rights has led to internal divisions and has distracted from the pragmatic governance that most Americans desire.

By emphasizing grievances over merit-based solutions, Democrats risk alienating working-class voters from all backgrounds who prioritize economic security over progressive benchmarks.

My own homebase of Chicago — where I served as CEO of its vast public school system — offers a sobering case study. In a city that is deeply Democratic yet inherently pragmatic, we have seen the ‘identity-first’ agenda collide with reality. As ideology has come to replace the ‘common good,’ the city’s budget deficit has ballooned and its base feels abandoned. Worst of all, violent crime has now reached epidemic proportions.

This is where Marco Rubio becomes the Democrats’ worst nightmare. While the Left is busy deconstructing American identity, Rubio is rebuilding it around themes of national unity and a ‘rethink’ of conservative economics that reaches the heart of the working class. He offers a breath of fresh air to many because he speaks the language of aspiration, not grievance — and he does so in both English and Espanol!

Democrats should be terrified by Marco Rubio, the son of working-class Cuban immigrants who fled to Florida in pursuit the American Dream

I understand this fear first-hand. As a lifelong Democrat — and candidate for Chicago Mayor — I’ve watched with growing alarm as my party has become hampered by unhealthy obsessions

Indeed, Rubio’s greatest strength is his belief that every American can succeed like he has. Trump clearly recognizes this talent, describing Rubio as taking a ‘velvet glove’ approach to diplomacy — a less combative, more accommodating style than Vance’s. It broadens the secretary’s his appeal beyond MAGA’s hard-edges.

Much of Rubio’s future, of course, depends on the outcome of the current war with Iran. The Secretary of State has been front and center defending US and Israeli military intervention since the war began. A longtime Senate hawk, he was a key architect of the administration’s hardline policy toward Tehran.

Democrats are already using Republican support for the US-Israeli-led war to target the GOP in the 2026 midterm elections. But the strategy could backfire if the conflict ends quickly, with Iran weakened and its Middle East neighbors aligned with Washington.

Success in Iran would make Rubio a formidable challenger to any Democrat, capping his long career as a legislator. In Florida, Rubio rose to Speaker of the House and then served 14 years in the US Senate — where 99 of 100 colleagues voted to confirm him as Secretary of State last year.

And securing Hispanic votes has never been more important for Republicans, who are desperate for a Latino rebound. 

President Trump’s support among Latinos has plummeted by 30 percent since hitting a record high just after the 2024 presidential election. The decline is driven by disapproval of Trump’s handling of the economy, inflation, and, most crucially, immigration, according to a January poll by the US Hispanic Business Council.

Rubio’s consistent opposition to leftist regimes in Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua aligns with key Latino voter blocs in Texas and Florida, which Democrats have long fantasized turning blue. 

Rubio provides exactly what JD Vance is missing: A strong appeal to Hispanic voters combined with a long record in state and federal legislative leadership

The past year has seen President Trump’s support among Latinos plummet by 30 percent since a record high just after the 2024 presidential election

But snagging the GOP nomination will not come easily for Rubio. A recent Emerson College poll shows Vance with a commanding lead over every potential GOP rival: 52 percent of likely Republican primary voters say they would support Vance for the nomination, 20 percent say they would back Rubio, 6 percent would support Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and 4 percent would support HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

The poll also found that 33 percent of independents planning to vote in the Republican primary favored Vance — despite most independents still leaning left. With two years to go before the first Republican primary, such polling offers a peek into what we might expect in 2028, but little in terms of certainty.

Although Trump described Rubio as the ‘best’ Secretary of State in US history at his February State of the Union, the President has hardly forsaken his second in command.

Trump used the same speech to excitedly announce Vance as his new ‘war on fraud’ czar. Clearly intended as a vote of confidence, the position — which targets grand corruption schemes like the one coursing through Minnesota — will play well with the MAGA base. But Democrats and those feeding from the public trough could also criticize it as yet another effort to weaponize federal agencies against the nation’s neediest.

Back in 2016, Trump and Rubio famously clashed on the presidential campaign trail, but the latter’s evolution from critic to crucial ally is more than just a political redemption arc. It is a warning shot to a Democratic establishment that has lost its way. Rubio’s greatest threat isn’t merely his resume; it’s his ability to personify an American Dream that Democrats once championed but have since traded for the fractured lens of ethnic warfare.

If Democrats continue along this path favoring identity politics over the ‘common good,’ they will find themselves on the outside looking in, wondering how they lost the very voters they long claimed to represent. Marco Rubio understands this equation; far left Democrats ignore it at their own peril.

• Paul Vallas is a former candidate for mayor of Chicago, Chicago city budget director and CEO of Chicago Public Schools