Down 12% In A Month, Will J.B. Hunt Stock Rebound?

The price of J.B. Hunt Transport Services stock (NASDAQ: JBHT) reached its 52-week high of around $218 last month before falling to $172 currently. It has seen a fall of about 12% in a month, while it is down 15% YTD. The fall over the recent weeks was not limited to JBHT, and many of the stocks in the transportation index have seen a fall over the same period. The decline came after the Department of Labor reported the first month-over-month decline in truck transportation jobs since April 2020, at the pandemic’s beginning. ^[1] J.B. Hunt’s revenue grew at a CAGR of 12.4% to $12.2 billion over the last twelve months, compared to $8.6 billion in 2018. This can be attributed to higher fuel surcharge, better pricing, and increased demand for trucking over the recent past.

Now that JBHT has seen a fall of 12% in a month, will it continue its downward trajectory, or is a rise imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a good chance of a rise in JBHT stock over the next month. Of 40 instances in the last ten years that JBHT stock saw a twenty-one-day fall of 12% or more, 27 resulted in JBHT stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 27 out of 40, or about a 68% chance of a rise in JBHT stock over the coming month. See our analysis on J.B. Hunt Stock Chance of Rise for more details.

Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using last ten years’ data

• After moving -0.6% or more over five days, the stock rose on 55% of the occasions in the next five days.
• After moving -17.8% or more over ten days, the stock rose on 20% of the occasions in the next ten days.
• After moving -11.9% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose on 68% of the occasions in the next twenty-one days.

This pattern suggests a higher chance of a rise in JBHT stock over the next five days and next one month, while it is likely to see lower levels in the next ten days.

J.B. Hunt Stock Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers

• Five-Day Return: TFII highest at 21.7%; LYFT lowest at -7.7%
• Ten-Day Return: TFII highest at 2.1%; JBHT lowest at -17.8%
• Twenty-One Day Return: TFII highest at 18.4%; JBHT lowest at -11.9%

While JBHT stock may see higher levels, the Covid-19 crisis has created many pricing discontinuities, which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for J.B. Hunt vs. LGI Homes.

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Source: Forbes