Nigel Farage has cautioned Andy Burnham that he might face embarrassment if he attempts to re-enter the Commons in a ‘leadership by-election,’ as Reform would see it as an ‘epic confrontation’.

The Manchester mayor is at the centre of increasing speculation that a local Labour MP could quit to allow Mr Burnham to fight the seat. 

This move could pave the way for Burnham to return to Parliament in time for a leadership showdown to replace Sir Keir Starmer, especially if the Peter Mandelson scandal becomes a tipping point for frustrated Labour MPs.

However, with Reform in strong polling positions locally, Farage told The Mail on Sunday: ‘It would be an epic clash that could leave Burnham embarrassed. We would put our full force behind it.’

His comments follow news that Burnham is preparing for a leadership run. The mayor has initiated a campaign urging Downing Street to implement wealth taxes, nationalize utility firms, and abolish the two-child benefit cap.

Additionally, Burnham is supporting Lucy Powell in the deputy leadership contest. Labour MPs note that if she triumphs over the Starmer-aligned candidate, Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson, it could signify that Burnham already has significant traction.

Yet, the challenge from Reform is underlined by polling showing that Powell’s own seat, Manchester Central, could be captured by Reform. Despite being recognized as ‘The King of the North’ and holding a net positive approval rating, Burnham is not currently a Member of Parliament.

Labour sources have said that one of Manchester’s MPs, who is in ill health, is ready to step down to pave the way for him.

Local sources in the city say that they are sceptical the mayor would risk the move, given the local strength of Reform and the fact that he would have to surrender his plum job before entering the contest. 

Mr Burnham, who is expected to criticise Sir Keir at Labour’s annual party conference this month, has launched Mainstream, a network of members who are critical of the Prime Minister. 

A spokesman for the group did not deny that it could become a leadership vessel for Mr Burnham modelled on Labour Together, a think-tank that helped win Sir Keir the leadership five years ago.

No 10 is becoming increasingly worried about Ms Powell winning the Deputy PM contest, and have been phoning Labour MPs to claim that ‘Lucy would hand victory to Reform’ and ‘Lucy is Reform’s dream target’.

Other MPs, including ministers, have told colleagues that they nominated Ms Phillipson only because they were told to – and that they now regret the decision.

Mr Burnham, who has already run to be leader of the party twice, has previously said he intends to see out his term as Manchester mayor until 2028.

He has launched several high-profile attacks on the Government in recent months, including on Sir Keir’s welfare reforms, which were abandoned after a backlash from MPs. He has also called for a more ‘pluralistic’ approach by No 10 and a reset of relations with backbenchers.

His support of Ms Powell in the deputy leadership race, which was triggered by the resignation of Angela Rayner over an underpaid stamp duty bill, has led to speculation among MPs that she could swap jobs with Mr Burnham, running to replace him as mayor while he campaigns for her seat.

Ms Powell has used the same language as her mentor, calling for a ‘change of culture’ at No 10 to make it more inclusive, and said ministers have made too many ‘unforced errors’ that have driven MPs away from the leadership.

When Sir Keir was first elected, he promised to hold regular meetings with England’s mayors, including Mr Burnham.

In their first meeting in Downing Street, four days after the General Election, the Prime Minister promised the new ‘council of regions and nations’ that they would meet ‘regularly’. At the ‘historic’ meeting, Mr Burnham suggested that it would ‘change the way the UK is run and give the North of England more of a say than ever’.

However, there have been no meetings since – adding to the perception that Sir Keir wants to keep Mr Burnham as far away from Westminster as possible.

One Labour source described the mayor as a ‘political chameleon par excellence’.

He said: ‘It’s hard to pin Andy down – first he was a Blairite, then he was a Brownite, then he went to the Left in the 2010 leadership election, and then he went back the other way when he stood for leader against Jeremy Corbyn.

‘I think he styles himself now as ‘populist Left’. But when it comes to his position in leadership contests, the only consistent thing is that he hasn’t won.’