On the eve of the 2016 election researcher Matthew MacWilliams had what he called a ‘holy s***’ moment.
He confirmed that the answer to four questions addressed to parents accurately predicted whether they were going to vote for Donald Trump.
‘I remember doing the work on it and going, Holy s***, this is quite something,’ MacWilliams told the Daily Mail.
The ‘child-rearing index’ he referenced involves four questions where participants are asked to select preferred qualities in children from pairs of characteristics.
The four questions are:
Would you say that it is more important for a child to be RESPECTFUL OF THEIR ELDERS or INDEPENDENT?
Would you say that it is more important for a child to be OBEDIENT or SELFRELIANT?
Would you say that it is more important for a child to be WELL-BEHAVED or CONSIDERATE?
Would you say that it is more important for a child to be GOOD MANNERED or CURIOUS?
Parents’ political leanings can be gauged by a ‘child-rearing index’ of how they want to raise their kids
The questions originated with the psychoanalyst Erich Fromm in the 1930s, and later found their way into polling.
MacWilliams used them as he studied voters predisposition to traits of authoritarianism, and found they correlated with support for Trump.
He found 18 percent with the maximum four first answers and 23 percent one step below.
‘The scale works really well. Where we’ve polled longitudinally over time, it’s been pretty consistent,’ he said.
In a 2021 paper three other academics, Andrew Engelhardt, Stanley Feldman and Marc Hetherington added four more questions which further refined the predictor.
Children react as they stand next to U.S. President Donald Trump in the Oval Office as he signs an executive order on AI on September 30, 2025
They added the options of it being more important for children to be ‘polite or free-spirited,’ ‘orderly or imaginative,’ ‘disciplined or adaptable’ and ‘loyal or open-minded.’
With only four questions 18 percent answered all first options and 17 percent all second.
But with eight questions it was 5 percent all first, and 10 percent all second.
Those who answered all first, the ‘most authoritarian, according to the survey’ – split 54 percent Republican and 34 percent Democrat.
Those who answered all second, the ‘least authoritarian,’ split 68 per cent Democrat and 15 percent Republican.
The academics wrote: ‘Qualities such as obedience, respect for elders, and good behavior in children suggest a hierarchical understanding of authority in a family – which, in turn, ought to reflect a similar understanding about political authority.’
President Donald Trump, accompanied by first lady Melania Trump, places a candy bar on the head of child dressed as Minion during a Halloween trick-or-treat event on the South Lawn of the White House which is decorated for Halloween, Monday, Oct. 28, 2019
Academic Matthew MacWilliams found Gen Z are ‘checked out’ when it comes to democracy
Meanwhile, MacWilliams’ ongoing research has also found a ‘disturbing’ lack of support for democracy among Gen Z.
He has found, based on a five-question test, that between 42 percent and 48 percent in the United States are ‘consistent supporters of democracy.’
‘That is typical for democracies across the world right now, and some are even much lower. If you sort that by age, you have a much more disturbing trend,’ he said.
Only 25 percent of Americans aged 18 to 30 are consistent supporters of democracy.
That compares to 65 percent of people aged over 70 .
‘Silent generation folks are consistent supporters of democracy. They’re getting replaced by people who are a lot less supportive of democracy,’ he said.
‘Young people don’t think democracy is getting them all that much. They it doesn’t mean that they’re all for authoritarianism, but what it is doing is creating a demographic succession that makes authoritarian and oligarchic leaders more likely to be successful.
‘It’s true in the United States, it’s true in Germany, it’s true in France, it’s true really, across the European continent.
The disillusionment with democracy is apparent on both right and left.
MacWilliams said he did focus groups with young black Americans who were ‘inconsistent supporters of democracy.’
He said: ‘What they were saying about democracy is “democracy is a lie” and “democracy doesn’t do anything for me.”
He added: ‘The only thing that young people are told to do is go vote. Democracy has been flattened to that for so many people, and they think voting doesn’t deliver what they want, politicians don’t listen to them.
‘And also, they’re impatient with democracy, because they can order anything they want on their phones, but they can’t order up change on their phones. The whole democratic process is slow, and they don’t like it.’
He said in one Gen Z focus group a ‘really nice’ teenager who didn’t democracy had said: ‘I’m a white guy, and so the person who’s probably going to be in power will be OK for me.’
‘You have a witch’s brew of problems,’ said MacWilliams. ‘The demographic shift that’s going on and support for democracy, which is apparent everywhere we’ve polled, it’s really pretty amazing.’
‘With young people, it (democracy) hasn’t done anything for them and in fact, it produces what they consider to be anti-democratic outcomes. Inequality is bad but democracy is doing nothing to make it better.
‘We keep saying, vote, vote, vote, and that’s what it means to be in a democracy. And for the young people, they just don’t think their vote really matters that much. So many younger people are just checked out, which is a shame.’
