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Australia would suffer a sharp recession under a prolonged war in Iran, according to an Oxford Economics report released as US President Donald Trump declared plans for three more weeks of intensified attacks.
The report ran a scenario where the global conflict continued and kept the Strait of Hormuz disrupted for six months, finding world growth would slow by 1.2 per cent and oil prices would rise above $US150 ($218) per barrel.
This would push global inflation to 7.7 per cent, near the 2022 peak.
Generic street scenes in Siidney CBD
Australia could suffer a sharp recession under a prolonged war in Iran, according to an Oxford Economics report.(AP)

“Gather some long-overdue courage, head to the Strait, and claim it. Safeguard it, and utilize it for your advantage.”

“While avoiding a recession is preferable, if taming inflation proves difficult, we may have to confront such a possibility,” she remarked at the time.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has tried to downplay the risk of a recession, but has admitted that the longer the global conflict continues, the longer it will take for the economy to recover.

“The more prolonged the shock, the more severe the repercussions on our economy, impacting inflation, growth, and the labor market,” he stated during a press conference yesterday.

“I would like to remind everyone that we’re facing this significant global economic challenge from a position of genuine relative economic strength.”

Australia’s most recent technical recession took place during the initial six months of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, disrupting nearly three decades of continuous economic growth.

Prior to that, the last recession was the “recession we had to have” in the early 1990s.

Before that, the last recession was the “recession we had to have” in the early 1990s.

A recession is most commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth in real GDP but the RBA notes it can have other, broader elements.

Australia’s latest unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) was 4.3 per cent in February, rising from 4.1 per cent in January. 

While the figure alone is relatively low, it has been tracking upwards since October 2022.

The highest unemployment rate in the past decade was 7.4 per cent in June 2020 during the pandemic.

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