Downing Street’s abrupt and intense criticism of Wes Streeting has thrown the Government, the Labour Party, and Westminster into chaos. However, the reason behind this uproar isn’t entirely clear to me.

The Prime Minister’s leadership effectively ended back in June when his own MPs turned against him, rejecting the welfare reforms that were central to his political and fiscal agenda.

Since that moment, the message from his backbenchers was clear: ‘Thanks for winning the election, but it’s time to move on.’

In reality, doubts about Starmer’s leadership started long before that. The Sue Gray controversy, constant international trips, lack of a clear political strategy, the Suitgate scandal, the mishap with the ‘island of strangers’ speech, and the disastrous—or non-existent—economic plan of the Government all contributed to the growing concerns.

We are now witnessing the onset of the endgame for Keir Starmer’s troubled and increasingly directionless leadership. On one hand, I feel some sympathy for him and his beleaguered, inconsistent advisers. This morning, Labour MPs are speaking out against No 10 for daring to criticize Health Secretary Wes Streeting, despite these same MPs openly expressing their disapproval of the Prime Minister and his Downing Street team throughout the summer.

But politics is politics. The current situation gained momentum last week following a seemingly harmless tweet by the Health Secretary. After a radical socialist won the mayoral election in New York, Streeting tweeted: ‘Inspirational campaign and victory for Zohran Mamdani in NYC. Lessons for progressives the world over.’

This entreaty to ‘learn lessons’ was perceived by Starmer’s aides – correctly – as a thinly veiled dig at the PM’s own lacklustre performance. As well as an unsubtle exercise by Streeting in showing some progressive ankle to Labour’s activist base.

The end game for Keir Starmer’s premiership began in earnest last week with a seemingly innocuous tweet from Health Secretary Wes Streeting, left, writes Dan Hodges

The tweet earned Streeting a public rebuke from Sir Keir’s chief of staff Morgan McSweeney

The result was a vicious public slap-down for Streeting from Morgan McSweeney, Sir Keir’s chief of staff. If Streeting – or any other challenger – attempted to unseat the Prime Minister, Starmer would fight them tooth and nail, journalists were briefed. Any move against him would also unsettle the markets and potentially precipitate a financial crisis.

Today there is widespread incredulity across Parliament at the clumsiness of McSweeney’s attack. But his critics are missing the point. The Prime Minister’s most senior adviser is an old hand at this stuff. He knew precisely the furore it would precipitate.

But McSweeney has now reached the point where he feels he has nothing to lose. Inside No 10 they know what’s coming. The Budget in two weeks will prove a political catastrophe. When Reeves and Starmer are shown to have lied to Britain with their pledge not to raise taxes on working people, McSweeney fully recognises he and his boss will have reached the point of no return – and that it will be a matter of when, not if, the plotters move.

So this is how it will play out. Starmer – as is his modus operandi – will decide he has to sacrifice McSweeney in a final desperate attempt to save himself. Indeed, there is now a recognition among MPs, and even some of McSweeney’s allies, that he is going to have to fall on his sword. ‘Morgan’s toast,’ one admitted to me. ‘McSweeney has to go,’ an influential backbencher agreed.

And he will. But it will not stop the bleeding. Because McSweeney’s briefing, with its focus on Streeting, has effectively given licence for all the other leadership candidates to break cover. Over the next few days, we will see a series of well-meaning, more-in-sorrow-than-in-anger articles, interviews and speeches from Manchester mayor Andy Burnham, defenestrated ex-deputy PM Angela Rayner, new Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood and energy zealot Ed Miliband.

Meanwhile Streeting will bask in the criticism, and attempt to rise serenely above the whole affair, with his own interviews, in which he will piously declare he cannot foresee any circumstances where he would challenge Keir Starmer, and how his only focus is on the health and wellbeing of the citizenry.

Manchester mayor Andy Burnham is among those who it is believed could challenge for the Labour leadership

But in reality the campaign to replace Starmer will begin in earnest. And while that may make for great spectator sport for us Westminster-watchers, it will spell disaster for the country. Because between now and the day Sir Keir is finally ousted, no one in Government is going to give two hoots for the country.

The sole focus for Cabinet ministers and MPs is now going to be their party’s leadership succession. And those who aspire to replace Sir Keir are aware of this simple political reality. The thoughts, aspirations and wishes of the British people are now irrelevant. To become Prime Minister, all they have to focus on are the thoughts, aspirations and wishes – not to mention votes – of the Labour activists who will select Starmer’s replacement.

So over the following weeks and months, the governance of the country will become nothing more than a backdrop to Labour’s unofficial, and increasingly fractious, leadership campaign. Public policy will be assessed and crafted through the prism of whether it will appeal to Labour members, not the wider country. And as it does, Britain will begin a slow, inexorable and ultimately catastrophic drift to the Left.

All of which will have the effect of making Keir Starmer nothing but a passenger to what remains of his ill-fated political voyage.

There was a moment last week that perfectly summed up the current state of his premiership. As the rest of the Government struggled to contain the fall-out from the erroneous release from prison of another foreign sex offender, the Prime Minister’s media team sent out a social media post from the COP-30 climate summit in Brazil. It featured Sir Keir wandering alone – and to the uncharitable eye, utterly lost – through the rainforest. As one minister said to me: ‘It’s like he’s given up. It’s almost impossible to get any focus on the domestic agenda any more. All he’s really interested in is foreign affairs.’

There is a lot of excited chatter that Starmer’s political demise could be imminent. Some MPs are now saying that if the backlash against the Budget is as great as some are predicting, he could even be forced out this side of Christmas.

Allies of Streeting are urging swift action, because they believe a speedy contest would prevent Andy Burnham – perceived as Streeting’s main challenger – from lining up the parliamentary seat he needs to run.

But this is fantastical thinking. McSweeney will be offered up as the necessary sacrifice, Starmer’s MPs will be momentarily placated, there will be talk of yet another relaunch and reset.

And then the process will begin again. Westminster’s dance of death. Starmer will stumble, the pack will gather. He will stumble again, the pack will close in. He will stumble a final time. The pack will pounce.

Next year’s local elections will prove to be the moment of reckoning. But they are six long months away. Six months during which Britain will be effectively held to ransom by Labour’s fratricidal MPs.

Everyone knows how this ends now. The best thing they could do – for both Sir Keir and the country – is get on with it, and put us all out of our misery.