Iran’s plan to retaliate against Israel for triggering the recent surge in Middle Eastern violence could potentially have worse global repercussions than both Vladimir Putin’s incursion into Ukraine and the Covid-19 pandemic combined, according to an economist.

This past weekend witnessed a series of missile and drone exchanges between Iran and Israel, initiated on Friday when Benjamin Netanyahu commanded the IDF to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities as well as densely populated urban areas.

While the conflict has mostly been contained between the two nations thus far, experts are concerned that Iran may soon undertake actions that could involve the entire world in the conflict.

Over the weekend, Islamic Revolutionary Guard commander Sardar Esmail Kowsari told local media that closing the Strait of Hormuz ‘is under consideration, and Iran will make the best decision with determination.’

The Strait is a pivotal trade route for the world. Around 20% of the world’s oil flows through the tiny sea passage, along with a fifth of all Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), making it the ‘world’s most important oil transit chokepoint’, according to the the US Energy Information Administration.

But Kowsari said Iran was not limiting its options in dealing with Israel, telling local media: ‘Our hands are wide open when it comes to punishing the enemy, and the military response was only part of our overall response.’

Trade Gerrit Heinemann told Bild that should Iran choose to close the Strait, which borders the country, the results would be ‘catastrophic.’

‘[It would be] worse than Corona and Putin combined! The second episode of the ongoing crisis would be even more severe than what we experienced at the beginning of the Ukraine war and during the Corona years. A disaster.’ 

He told the newspaper: ‘A large part of the global supply chains runs through the affected region. This not only dramatically impacts energy supplies, but also the flow of goods.’

‘All of a sudden, all the crises we had just overcome would return: the energy crisis, inflation, disrupted supply chains, and now the threat of mass unemployment.’ 

At its thinnest, it is just 21 miles wide, and the shipping lanes in the Strait are even smaller. 

This makes it incredible vulnerable to attacks, which international leaders have already warned. 

Iraq’s foreign minister Fuad Hussein warned of a ‘global energy crisis’ if the Strait is closed. 

And the UK Maritime Trade Operations today said it had received ‘increasing electronic interference’ in the Gulf and Straits of Hormuz.’

It added: ‘The levels and intensity inside the Gulf are having a significant impact on vessels positional reporting through automated systems (AIS). 

‘Vessels are advised to transit with caution and continue to report incidents of electronic interference to the UKMTO.’

It isn’t the first time a rogue group has threatened international trade this year. Since Israel began its invasion of Ukraine, the Yemeni Houthi group have been attacking ships in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, the entry into the Red Sea, in an effort to pressure the West, which has largely backed Israel throughout its history. 

But ships that ordinarily use the Bab al-Mandeb Strait can still avoid it by sailing round Africa. 

In the case of the Strait of Hormuz, there is no way to get anything out of the Gulf of Persia, the single biggest source of petroleum in the world. 

Cutting the world off from such a large source of energy would massively affect economies across the world, which still largely rely on non-renewable sources like oil for their needs. 

There is precedent for this type of move from Iran. In April 2024, Iranian armed forced seized a container near the Strait of Hormuz following rising tensions across the Middle East after Israel launched a missile at its consulate in Damascus, Syria. 

For now, Iran and Israel appear to be escalating their attacks on each other.  

Iran fired a new wave of missile attacks on Israel early on Monday, killing at least eight people, while Israel warned residents of part of Tehran to evacuate ahead of new strikes.

The warning came on the fourth day of the conflict, as the Israeli military claimed to have achieved ‘aerial superiority’ over Iran’s capital.

The military says it has degraded Iranian air defences and missile systems to the point that its planes can now operate over Tehran without facing major threats.

It says Israel now controls the skies from western Iran to Tehran.

Later, the Israeli military warned residents of part of Tehran to evacuate ahead of strikes on military sites in the city.

It came after Iran fired a new wave of missile attacks on Israel early on Monday, triggering air raid sirens across the country as emergency services reported at least five killed and dozens more wounded in the fourth day of open warfare between the regional foes.