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The results of the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania depend largely on about 30,000 mail-in ballots that have not yet been counted as of Wednesday at noon.
Dr. Mehmet Oz currently holds a 2,463-vote lead over McCormick with more than 95 percent of votes reported, according to the New York Times.
MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki shared a breakdown of the outstanding mail-in ballots by county:
Breakdown by county of estimated uncounted GOP mail-in ballots, updated for what was received yesterday: pic.twitter.com/HlAUd28YGz
— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) May 18, 2022
Several analysts observed that McCormick has carried about a nine percent lead over Oz on mail-in ballots so far counted. For McCormick to recover from his current 2,463-vote deficit, he would need to maintain or at least come near that mail-in vote advantage.
Philadelphia Inquirer reporter Jonathan Tamari observed the quantity of mail-in ballots outstanding is “potentially helpful” to McCormick.
McCormick allies expecting far more GOP mail ballots than my initial source – potentially helpful to him since he has led with mail voting >>>
— Jonathan Tamari (@JonathanTamari) May 18, 2022
McCormick adviser Jeff Roe, founder of the GOP consulting firm Axiom Strategies, stated on social media he was “confident” McCormick would pull through once the outstanding ballots were all tabulated.
“Based on how many uncounted absentee ballots there are and the margin by which Dave has won them so far, that’s why we are confident of victory. Dave will win this race,” Roe wrote.
Based on how many uncounted absentee ballots there are and the margin by which Dave has won them so far, that’s why we are confident of victory. Dave will win this race. #PASen
— Jeff Roe (@jeffroe) May 18, 2022
Late Tuesday just before midnight, both Oz and McCormick appeared on stage at their respective election night watch parties, and both candidates all but declared victory.
“We’re going to win this campaign, and tomorrow — right now, we have tens of thousands of mail-in ballots that have not been counted that are going to need to be counted beginning tomorrow,” McCormick said to a crowd of supporters in Pittsburgh.
On the opposite side of the state in Newtown, Oz announced to his own supporters, “When all the votes are tallied, I am confident we will win. … We are making a ferocious charge.”
Both candidates acknowledged that they did not expect results Tuesday night, and as of the time of this writing it remains unclear when the leftover mail-in ballots will all be fully counted.