SATURDAY AM: It’s the 15th weekend of the box office year, and only the fourth to exceed $100M+ for all titles. The industry should take it.

True, Warner Bros/Legendary’s A Minecraft Movie is delivering 52% of the $153M frame, still an $80M+ opening weekend, but I can’t imagine that any exhibitor is complaining about the diversity or the amount of product in the marketplace. Global running total for Minecraft stands at $434M. Without A Minecraft Movie, we’d have Angel Studios’ animated Charles Dickens-Jesus movie The King of Kings of leading with around $17.6M; which technically as the faith-based distributed predicted, is the best opening for an animated Biblical movie, overpowering the opening of DreamWorks Animation’s Prince of Egypt ($14.5M) 27 years ago.

All of this bodes well heading into Easter weekend (with 72% K-12 schools off, 28% colleges on Break on Good Friday) where Warner Bros will rule with a one-two punch of A Minecraft Movie and Ryan Coogler’s Sinners (even if it falls short of No. 1 — we’ll assess that if needed). Point is, we’re finally getting some momentum at the box office as we head into summer. Even if Disney/Marvel Studios’ Thunderbolts* comes in at $70M (there are some in distribution who believe it’s bad luck for summer if it doesn’t kick off with a $100M+ opening); Memorial Day weekend is the surefire back-up plan for the industry with Disney’s Lilo & Stitch and Mission: Impossible – Final Reckoning looking to at least deliver a combined $160M+ over 3 days.

With five wide releases this weekend, there are some who believe there’s too much product, particularly movies which are going after the same demo, i.e. 20th Century Studios’ The Amateur (pulling in 57% guys, 47% men over 25) at $15M and A24’s Warfare (72% men, 53% over 25) at $8M. I get that argument, however, let’s face it — given both movie’s respective openings of $15M and $8M, even in a less competitive marketplace, their openings would be about the same given the P&A spend that both distributors are laying out. Given all the pom poms for Warfare as Alex Garland’s best reviewed movie, 90% positive PostTrak and 67% definite recommend, A- CinemaScore (which is higher than his Civil War at B-), if this military red state grab was ever going to be American Sniper and touch an electric rod, then it would perform that way. Given Warfare‘s $20M production cost (vs. Civil War‘s $50M), the movie was never expected to perform like the latter (which wound up as A24’s biggest opening ever at $25.5M) given its P&A to production cost spend.

The Amateur is playing as expected on the coasts while Warfare has invaded South Central and West.

Amateur‘s diversity demos are 49% Caucasian, 21% Latino and Hispanic, 16% Black, 8% Asian & 7% NatAm/Other with the AMC Lincoln Square in NYC the pic’s top grossing theater so far at $21K. The James Hawes directed movie received a B+ CinemaScore with PostTrak audiences giving it a 77% positive and 57% definite recommend.

AMC Lincoln Square is also the top venue for Warfare with a running total of $34K. Diversity make-up was 47% Caucasian, 29% Latino and Hispanic, 10% Black, 9% Asian & 5% NatAm/Other. 

Blumhouse/Universal’s Drop which pulled in (to use that word lightly) 53% female, is looking at a $7.7M opening in another lackluster opening for the horror label after Wolf Man‘s $10.8M and Woman in the Yard‘s $9.3M. CinemaScore is a B, which is high praise for a horror film. Rotten Tomatoes audience score is 80%. Why isn’t this doing more? This is better than Woman in the Yard‘s C- and RT audience rating of 46%, as well as Wolf Man‘s C- and RT audience 56%. Biggest demo was 25-34 year olds at 35% with a diversity make-up of 52% White, 21% Latino, 12% Black, 8% Asian & 6% NatAm/Other. Drop is playing in the East, South Central and West with the AMC Burbank the movie’s best grossing multiplex with $18K-plus so far. The final magic domestic number for Blumhouse’s thrifty fare this year seems to be $20M+. M3GAN 2.0 can’t arrive soon enough (she gets her on June 27).

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FRIDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: With Warner Bros/Legendary’s second weekend of A Minecraft Movie set to do $80 million at 4,289 theaters, already this frame will be significantly ahead of the 3-day total a year ago, when all titles grossed $75.2M. That would mark a 51% ease for the Jared Hess-directed movie after $20M today. Illumination/Nintendo/Universal’s The Super Mario Bros Movie dipped 37% in its second weekend for $92.3M.

Angel Studios’ animated biblical movie The King of Kings is looking pretty royal with $7.3M today, including last night’s $2M, for an $18M-plus opening at 3,200 sites.

20th Century Studios’ Rami Malek thriller The Amateur is shaping up to be $6M today for a $15M opening. Moviegoers enjoyed it more than critics on Rotten Tomatoes, 89% to 62% fresh.

A24’s Warfare is Alex Garland’s best-reviewed movie ever on Rotten Tomatoes at 95% certified fresh; that’s higher than 2014’s Ex Machina (92%). This will translate to a $3.5M Friday, inclusive of previews, and an $8M opening in fourth place at 2,670 theaters. RT audience score also is high at 93%.

Universal/Blumhouse’s Drop at 3,085 theaters is seeing $3.4M today (including previews) for a $7.7M start. Critics don’t mind it at 83% certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, with audiences at 74%.

FRIDAY AM UPDATE: A lot going on in Thursday previews, many of them boosted by early screenings.

As we told you last night, Warner Bros/Legendary’s A Minecraft Movie crossed $200M after a $7.1M Thursday. It took Minecraft one week to hit that mark versus Illumination/Nintendo/Universal’s The Super Mario Bros Movie, which did that figure in five days in 2023 — again because it was a Wednesday release leading into Easter weekend. The anticipation is that Minecraft eases by 60% this weekend to about $65M and another No. 1 showing.

Angel Studios is calling $2M for its animated biblical movie The King of Kings. That’s pure preview money from showtimes starting at 11 a.m. Thursday. There’s some high excitement that the movie could have the edge over 20th Century Studios’ $60M Rami Malek PG-13 spy movie The Amateur, after $14.6M in presales. We’ll see soon if all that cash is for this weekend.

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The Amateur did $2M in previews, but that includes early screenings as well as 2 p.m. showtimes yesterday. That’s in the range of the previews for Amazon MGM Studios/Miramax’s The Beekeeper ($2.4M previews with early screenings, $16.6M 3-day last year) and 20th’s own The Creator ($1.6M previews and early screenings, $14M opening in 2023). The pic is launching today in 3,400 theaters, including 400 Imax auditoriums, 300 Premium Large Format screens and 100 D-Box/Motion screens. The 3-day is expected to be north of $12M.

RELATED: ‘The Amateur’ Review: Rami Malek In Gripping Global Spy Thriller That Is Bourne For Computer Nerds

Universal/Blumhouse’s date thriller Drop, starring Meghann Fahy and Brandon Sklenar, posted $730K in previews from 2,600 theaters that began screenings at 1:50 p.m. When you include Monday and Wednesday previews, that rises to $1.4M. Its 3-day is around $6M-$7M. The PG-13 feature is after women 17-34. Drop was made for $11M net before P&A after a robust tax credit from Ireland.

A24’s play for the middle of the country, Warfare, counts $1.16M previews from both early-access and Thursday showtimes that began at 4 p.m. at 2,670 sites. From directors Alex Garland and Ray Mendoza, the R-rated Navy SEAL POV movie is expected to come in between $7M-$9M. Warfare cost $20M before P&A.

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