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NASCAR will be under the lights Saturday at Martinsville, and Nick Giffen of The Action Network is here to give a pair of best bets.
For his first wager, Giffen is looking to the derivative market and a name somewhat down the odds board: AJ Allemendinger Top 10 (+310).
For Giffen, he believes Allemendinger’s track history paired with a new car will lead to success at Martinsville.
“Allemendinger has finished inside the top-10 in one-third of his starts at Martinsville,” Giffen says. “That includes two races where he was in absolute bottom-tier equipment, so if you remove those two, it’s actually seven out of 19 races or more than a third of the time.”
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Additionally, Allemendinger has finished inside the top-10 in five of the last 10 races at this track. Add in that the new NASCAR next-gen car was designed with road racing in mind – a type of track on which Allemendinger thrives – and Giffen believes he’s primed for a good finish Saturday night.
As for his second best bets, Giffen is targeting Ryan Blaney to produce an outright win at consensus +750 odds.
Much like Allemendinger, Martinsville is a very strong track for Blaney. He owns a top-five finish in five of his past eight starts and has led 16.8 percent of all laps in the last four Spring races at the track.
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Plus, Giffen’s model gives Blaney an edge based on his implied probability to win the race.
“My model gives Blaney a 12.8 percent chance to win. That outpaces the 11.4 percent we’re getting with the implied odds,” Giffen says.
Source: NYPOST
