According to an A2 Insights poll, the gap between Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears and Democrat Abigail Spanberger in Virginia’s gubernatorial race is closing, making it a tight contest as the election in November approaches.
A new survey indicates that Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears is trailing Democrat Abigail Spanberger by only three points in the Virginia gubernatorial race. The A2 Insights poll, conducted between September 26 and 28, shows Spanberger leading with 47.7 percent compared to Earle-Sears, who has 44.6 percent support, putting the race within the margin of error.
This narrowing in the polls follows several controversies impacting Spanberger’s campaign. She faced criticism in September for urging supporters at various events to “let your rage fuel you,” a refrain she has repeated during her campaign. Earle-Sears countered this by emphasizing a message of unity, asserting, “Virginia is for lovers — not rage.”
Spanberger has been pressed to clarify her stance on men’s involvement in women’s sports and the use of female restrooms. During a recent media session, she referenced previous state-level handling of these issues on a “case-by-case” basis without giving a definitive yes or no answer. In contrast, Earle-Sears has consistently stated her opposition to biological males competing in women’s sports or accessing female-only spaces.
Spanberger’s campaign has also faced scrutiny over endorsements and affiliations. Dot Heffron, a Chesterfield County School Board member who endorsed Spanberger in 2023, caused outrage by praising the assassination of Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk, prompting calls from Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) for Heffron’s resignation. Spanberger later condemned “any efforts to justify or minimize” political violence. Similarly, a Spanberger campaign staffer was accused of praising Kirk’s assassination on social media, writing “F around and find out.” Earle-Sears and the Virginia Republican Party urged Spanberger to denounce these comments and sever ties.
Immigration policy has also been a central issue in the campaign. In August, Spanberger stated that if elected, she would revoke Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s executive order mandating cooperation with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), effectively proposing to make Virginia a sanctuary state. Youngkin criticized this stance, arguing that Spanberger was prioritizing “dangerous criminals” over Virginia’s safety, while Earle-Sears promised to continue strict enforcement.
Spanberger has faced criticism from national figures as well. President Donald Trump took aim at her for supporting “men in women’s sports” and “open borders,” pointing to her refusal to clearly state opposition to biologically male athletes competing in girls’ competitions. Earle-Sears amplified Trump’s remarks, saying Virginians must reject policies that endanger women and families.
The campaign trail has also been marked by inflammatory rhetoric. In Arlington, protesters displayed a sign attacking Earle-Sears that compared her stance on transgender policies to segregation, drawing widespread condemnation from leaders across both parties. Spanberger labeled the sign “racist and abhorrent.”
