RBA says inflation will hit SIX per cent in Australia, interest rate rises all but confirmed

The Reserve Bank has confirmed Australian households will be hit with a ‘further lift’ in interest rates to rein inflation, which it expects to hit six per cent in a level not seen since the year 2000.

In its quarterly statement on monetary policy, and just days after raising the cash rate for the first time in over a decade, the RBA also warned rising interest rates and consumer prices are expected to weigh on households’ budgets. 

‘The Board is committed to doing what is necessary to ensure that inflation in Australia returns to target over time,’ the statement released on Friday said. 

The Reserve Bank has warned of further interest rate rises as they look to counter inflationary pressure

‘This will require a further lift in interest rates over the period ahead.’ 

The RBA raised the cash rate to 0.35 per cent at its board meeting this week from a record low 0.1 per cent, where it had stood since November 2020. 

It expects the economy to grow by 4.25 per cent this year compared with 4.2 per cent in 2021. 

‘The domestic outlook is supported by the substantial boost to national income from high commodity prices and growth in private consumption and investment,’ it said. 

The RBA predicted that a combination of rising interest rates and inflation will weigh on household budgets

‘Growth is then forecast to moderate in 2023 as extraordinary policy support is withdrawn, rising prices weigh on real income and consumption growth slows to more typical rates.’ 

It expects growth to slow to two per cent by the end of 2023, below the economy’s long-term trend at just under three per cent. 

‘Increases in interest rates and consumer prices are anticipated to weigh on households’ budgets over the forecast period, but the effect on consumption is expected to be cushioned by a decline in the household saving ratio,’ it said. 

As flagged earlier this week, the RBA expects inflation to hit six per cent by the end of the year, an upgrade from its 3.25 per cent prediction made three months ago. 

This compared with the most recent result of 5.1 per cent, the fastest pace since 2001. 

Underlying inflation is expected to lift to 4.75 per cent by December this year, well above the RBA’s two to three per cent inflation target.  

These forecasts, along with an expected drop in the unemployment rate to 3.5 per cent next year, assume a cash rate of 1.75 per cent in the December quarter of this year and 2.5 per cent a year later. 

These cash rate assumptions are derived from surveys of professional economists and financial market pricing, it said.