As both states prepare for the 2026 gubernatorial elections with no incumbents in the running, Florida and Georgia are capturing national interest well ahead of their primary elections.

In these races, analysts note that while both contests are fiercely competitive, their dynamics differ significantly. Florida’s race is led by a strong early front-runner, whereas Georgia’s remains a split battleground reflecting its status as a genuine swing state.

Florida’s Republican primary is notably crowded. However, A.G. Gancarski, a seasoned political analyst, points out that one candidate has quickly emerged as the leader of the pack.

“Byron Donalds, a congressman from Naples, is the standout on the Republican side,” Gancarski remarked. “Polls consistently show him approaching 50%, and his fundraising efforts have surpassed all other candidates combined, reaching over $30 million recently.”

Donalds’ lead is attributed to his robust fundraising capabilities, widespread name recognition, and a pivotal endorsement from former President Donald Trump, according to Gancarski.

On the Democratic side, candidates are still working to consolidate support. Two of the most recognizable names are Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings and former Congressman David Jolly.

Gancarski expects a familiar pattern in the Democratic primary.

“You’ll probably see a sort of demographic split among Democrats,” he said. “The Black Democrats more going for Demings and the white Democrats perhaps going for Jolly — that kind of split that we’ve seen traditionally, like 2018 when Andrew Gillum ran.

In Georgia, the race remains up in the air without a clear frontrunner.

Gancarski says the Peach State’s status as a swing state, and its more independent-leaning Republican voters, make the outcome far less predictable.

“Georgia’s election is going to be interesting to watch because Georgia Republicans are a little bit different than Florida Republicans,” Gancarski said. “They don’t necessarily walk in lockstep with the president.”

The Republican field includes several high-profile statewide leaders, including Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones, and Attorney General Chris Carr all competing for the nomination.

On the Democratic side, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms has emerged as an early front-runner, though analysts say the race will ultimately depend on primary turnout.

“In Georgia, it’s going to be more of a split thing,” Gancarski said. “You’re going to see who comes out of the primary.”

Even this early in the election cycle, Gancarski says campaign finances can offer valuable insight into who has staying power.

“I always look at fundraising reports because they come out every quarter now,” he said. “If a candidate isn’t really demonstrating momentum in terms of fundraising, they’re not going to get very far in terms of the electorate.”

• Primary Election: August 18

• Voter Registration Deadline (Primary): July 20

• General Election: November 3

• Voter Registration Deadline (General): October 5

• Primary Election: May 19

• Voter Registration Deadline (Primary): April 20

• General Election: November 3

• Voter Registration Deadline (General): October 5

• Byron Donalds

• Paul Renner

• James Fishback

• Jay Collins

• Brad Raffensperger

• Burt Jones

• Chris Carr