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We may have an answer to the question I asked earlier.
But the prudent course for now is skepticism, particularly given how this report originated.
⚡️⚡️Azov regiment: Russia used poisonous substance against Ukrainian troops in Mariupol.
The substance has been distributed by a drone, and victims have shortness of breath and vestibulocerebellar ataxia.
It may be Russia’s first known use of chemical weapons in Ukraine.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) April 11, 2022
Azov regiment says a Russian drone dropped chemical weapons on their positions in Mariupol, causing respiratory and nerve system symptoms. No immediate confirmation of the claim.
— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) April 11, 2022
Mariupol has been under siege for a month and faced repeated attacks by the Russians trying to break the Ukrainian resistance inside. Russia wants the city so that it can finally establish a “land bridge” from the Donbas in the east to Crimea in the south. Despite horrendous conditions that have reportedly killed 10,000 civilians, the defenders of Mariupol have held out.
The Mariupol garrison is having it extreme now.
Our guys are all alone, in a besieged ruined city, defending the last pockets next the main fortress, the AzovStal plant.
The situation not seen in Europe since Wold War II.
But the Azov Sea Steel is still holding on… pic.twitter.com/QAW8EKblbi— Illia Ponomarenko ?? (@IAPonomarenko) April 11, 2022
That’s why it’s so hard to confirm the reports of a chemical attack this afternoon: Who’s going to confirm it, exactly? Because the city has been a no-go zone for reporters for weeks, we’re all at the mercy of rumors and propaganda in evaluating the situation there.
There’s another confounding factor. The Azov Battalion based in Mariupol is a far-right Ukrainian militia. They’re the closest thing to actual Nazis in the ocean of Russian propaganda about Ukraine being some sort of Fourth Reich. If the “Azov regiment” described above is a reference to the Azov Battalion, it’ll be easy for the Kremlin to dismiss this as “Nazi propaganda.” It’ll even give their perpetual claims that all Russian atrocities are actually Ukrainian false-flag operations a bit of extra credence. If any Ukrainian unit is radical enough to commit crimes against Ukraine’s own people to galvanize international opinion against Russia, one would think it’d be the Azovs.
Also, is there any smartphone service still left in Mariupol? If so, it should be simple enough to film the aftermath of the supposed attack and upload it. Where’s that video?
But there are also reasons to believe the report might be legit. For one thing, it was only a few hours ago that Russian separatists in the Donbas called for using chemical weapons in Mariupol to weaken the remaining resistance:
⚡️ Russian proxies call for using chemical weapons in Mariupol.
Spokesman for Russia’s proxies in Donetsk said on April 11 that it made no sense to storm the Ukrainian-controlled Azovstal plant in Mariupol and instead Russian “chemical forces” should “smoke (Ukrainians) out.”
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) April 11, 2022
Meanwhile in Russian state media: more talk of using chemical weapons in Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/mfU40LGeci
— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) April 11, 2022
This is a fair point too. A new Russian commander with a history of using WMD might predictably resort to WMD to announce his arrival on the battlefield:
Russia just used chemical arms in Mariupol. This happened just after Putin appointed General Dvornikov, the butcher of Syria, who used chemical weapons there, to the Ukraine command. @POTUS has promised tough NATO action. Yes, time to deliver! Time is short!
— Anders Åslund (@anders_aslund) April 11, 2022
As for a strategic reason to use chemical weapons, there’s the obvious one of trying to terrorize the population into surrender. But there’s also this:
A good guess as to why the Russians would be using chemical weapons in Mariupol (if confirmed) is that their losses are so high, Russian soldiers arent willing to expose themselves any more in combat. https://t.co/aV0pxpyLJO
— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) April 11, 2022
Russia has reached a point of such desperation in manpower that it’s reportedly planning to call retired troops back into the field. Taking Mariupol and the Donbas isn’t a simple matter for them of redeploying forces that had been stationed around Kiev to the east and south. Those units need to be reconstituted, and they may be in no condition to fight.
The number of Russian battalion tactical groups (700-1k soldiers each) rendered combat ineffective in the Ukraine war so far has been reassessed at 37-38 according to a western official, leaving 90 operational. That suggests heavier losses than previously thought
— Mark Urban (@MarkUrban01) April 11, 2022
More detail on Russian BTG losses and evidence that some of those still in action are suffering morale breakdowns with troops refusing to go into combat. https://t.co/lPXjsSTiVw
— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) April 11, 2022
The clock is ticking on Putin’s army. If they’re going to grab Mariupol, establish their land bridge, and then demand a peace deal, they may fear that this is their last chance to do so before their forces break. The lowest-cost option available to knock over the remaining Mariupol resistance at this point might be gas.
We’ll see if the alleged attack can be corroborated. If it is, the United States will have a hard decision to make. One month ago today:
Q: “Would the U.S. have a military response if Putin does launch a chemical weapons attack?”
President Biden: “Russia would pay a severe price if they use chemical weapons.” pic.twitter.com/BJy8mxsPDU
— CSPAN (@cspan) March 11, 2022
Does “severe price” mean U.S. military assets on the battlefield (or more likely in the airspace) of Ukraine? Or does it mean Ukraine gets a higher caliber of weapons than we’ve sent them so far plus a new round of sanctions on Russia, assuming we haven’t already sanctioned everything that moves there?
It’s hard for me to believe NATO will be involved on the ground in Ukraine for any reason short of a Russian attack on NATO assets. But there’s always some theoretical limit to the depravity beyond which a critical mass of westerners would say “enough.” If we end up with Russian einsatzgruppen rounding up Ukrainian “Nazis” en masse in occupied towns and marching them off to the forest, which isn’t all that far removed from what happened in Bucha, presumably that’s over the line. But if that’s over the line, wouldn’t gassing Ukrainians en masse be over the line too?
Anyway, all “news” from Mariupol is a rumor at best these days. But the White House is watching this one closely.
Source: This post first appeared on HotAir
