Moscow is assisting China in preparing for a potential invasion of Taiwan, according to an analysis of leaked Russian documents by a UK-based defense and security forum.

The Royal United Services Institute’s review is drawn from approximately 800 pages of documents, encompassing contracts and lists of equipment to be supplied from Moscow to Beijing, sourced from the Black Moon hacktivist group.

The combination of completed and apparent draft Russian documents mentions meetings between Chinese and Russian delegations, along with payment and delivery schedules for high-altitude parachute systems and amphibious assault vehicles.

These documents imply that Russia has initiated work on these items to be supplied, but they do not provide direct evidence from the Chinese side that Beijing has either paid any funds or received any gear.

While the authors suggest the equipment could be utilized to invade Taiwan, under Xi Jinping, China has launched a broad modernization initiative for its armed forces, aiming to transform it into a ‘world-class’ military by 2050.

High-ranking US officials have indicated that Chinese President Xi Jinping instructed his military to be ready for a potential invasion of Taiwan as early as 2027.

Beijing claims the self-governing democracy is rightfully a part of China and has not ruled out seizing the island by force.

The documents don’t mention Taiwan directly, but the analysis by the London-based institute suggests the deal would help China gain advanced parachuting capabilities that it would need to mount an invasion, potentially speeding up a timeline.

It’s not certain that China has decided to invade Taiwan, but access to Russian equipment and localized training in China means Beijing will be better equipped for a potential invasion, analyst Oleksandr Danylyuk said. 

‘The Chinese school of airborne landing is very young,’ he said, suggesting Moscow’s assistance could help speed up China’s airborne program by about 10 to 15 years.

Russia’s Kremlin, and China and Taiwan’s defense and foreign ministries did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

‘The greatest value of the deal’ to China is likely in the training and procedures for command and control of parachute forces, because Russia has ‘combat experience,’ whereas China doesn’t’, adds Danylyuk and analyst Jack Watling.

The analysts say Russia’s aim is to develop as a military supplier to China and fund its war in Ukraine. 

But Danylyuk also suggested that Moscow may want to draw Beijing into a conflict with Washington over Taiwan, distracting the US from Russia’s war with Ukraine.

While Beijing’s military capabilities largely surpass Moscow’s, the analysis says China has gaps which Russia can fill. 

Russia has a long history of airborne forces dating back decades.

Song Zhongping, a military commentator in Beijing, said China had superior equipment, but ‘Russia has more combat experience.’

‘Russia and China have their own relative strengths in paratrooping,’ Song said.

They ‘conducted joint air, sea patrols and drills, which indicates they are learning from each other’s strengths to address their own weaknesses.’

According to a document dated September 2024, an initial agreement was reached in April 2021 with timelines for payments and delivery. 

Stages one and two – analysis of technical specifications, software modifications and equipment manufacturing – have been completed, according to that document.

Russia also agreed to provide training in China and a complete set of equipment for an airborne battalion including the ability to carry out infiltration by special forces, the analysis says.

That includes the sale of 37 light amphibious assault vehicles, 11 amphibious anti-tank self-propelled guns, and 11 airborne armored personnel carriers, as well as command and observation vehicles. The total cost is listed as more than $210 million.

Beijing wants all the vehicles to be equipped with Chinese communication systems and to be prepared to use Chinese ammunition, the documents show.

Just three months ago, the head of NATO warned that a ‘massive’ buildup of China’s military raised the risk of a potential invasion of Taiwan. 

Speaking ahead of the alliance’s summit in The Hague back in June, NATO secretary general Mark Rutte said: ‘We have this close relationship with Japan and the Republic of Korea, Australia and New Zealand, exactly for the reason that these countries are very, very worried about the massive military buildup in China that at the moment is taking place.’ 

Mr Rutte added that if China moved in on Taiwan, there was a possibility that Beijing would draw in Vladimir Putin, impacting European security.

‘We are all very worried, of course, about the situation in Taiwan. And we also know there is a risk that if the Chinese will try anything with Taiwan, that no doubt he will call his junior partner, Mr Putin, and make sure … he will keep us busy here, if that would happen’, he said.

In his pre-summit address, Mr Rutte also noted that China’s rapidly expanding military capabilities were evident from the global rise of its defence firms.

‘We know that out of the 10 biggest defence companies, only a couple of years ago you would not find any Chinese companies. At this moment, you will find three to five Chinese defence companies in the top 10 of biggest defence companies in the world’, he said.

‘This shows you that this massive buildup is taking place and is having a huge impact, also when it comes to the defence industrial production of China.’

Mr Rutte added that due to the potential risk, NATO members have to ‘stand ready’ and ‘cannot be naive’.