Potentially significant shifts may be occurring on the battlefield of Russia’s war in Ukraine, some western officials say.

Air vice-marshal Mick Smeath, London’s defence attaché in Washington, said British intelligence assesses that Ukrainian forces probably have retaken two towns west of Kyiv, the capital.

It is likely that successful counterattacks by Ukraine will disrupt the ability of Russian forces to reorganise and resume their own offensive towards Kyiv,” Smeath said.

Ukraine says it is now shifting to the offensive and has pushed back Russian forces, including north of Kyiv after repelling five Russian attacks in the country’s east on Thursday.

Russian troops did not have enough resources to push ahead with their offensive in Ukraine, Oleksander Motuzyanyk, Ukraine’s defence ministry spokesperson said.

The latest UK ministry of defence intelligence report claimed Ukraine is now striking “high value targets” that is forcing Russian forces to divert resources to defend their supply lines. It cited the attacks on a landing ship and ammunition storage depots at Berdyansk as examples of valuable targets.

Ukrainian forces have launched strikes against high value targets in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine, including a landing ship and ammunition storage depots at Berdyansk.

It is likely that the Ukrainians will continue to target logistical assets in Russian-held areas. This will force the Russian military to prioritise the defence of their supply chain and deprive them of much needed resupply for forces.

This will reduce Russia’s ability to conduct offensive operations, and further damage already dwindling morale.”

Russia is running out of precision guided munitions and it is more likely to rely on so-called dumb bombs and artillery, a senior Pentagon official said on Thursday, Reuters reports.

Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl speculated that he did not believe President Vladimir Putin wanted to have an all out conflict with Nato.

Earlier, we reported that three US officials claimed Russia is suffering high failure rates as high as 60% for some of its precision-guided missiles while its forces have taken heavy casualties and are low on supplies.

According to an Associated Press report, Russian shortcomings in Ukraine might be the biggest shock of the war so far. After two decades of modernisation and professionalisation, Putin’s forces have proved to be “ill-prepared, poorly coordinated and surprisingly stoppable”, the news agency said.

The extent of Russian troop losses is not known in detail, although Nato estimates that between 7,000 and 15,000 have died in the first four weeks — potentially as many as Russia lost in a decade of war in Afghanistan. Ukraine’s general staff of the armed forces have claimed Russian losses to be as high as 15,600.

Robert Gates, the former CIA director and defense secretary, said Putin “has got to be stunningly disappointed” in his military’s performance.

“Here we are in Ukraine seeing conscripts not knowing why they’re there, not being very well trained, and just huge problems with command and control, and incredibly lousy tactics,” Gates said at a forum recently.

In case you missed this earlier interview with UK prime minister Boris Johnson on BBC Newsnight, here is a quick recap.

Johnson told the broadcaster he’s not optimistic that Russian President Putin wants peace.

I’m not optimistic that Vladimir Putin really wants that [peace].

I think he’s decided to double down and try to Groznify the great cities of Ukraine in the way that he’s always tried to do and I think that’s a tragic mistake.”

“Groznify” is a reference to the Chechen city of Grozny, which Russia bombed and besieged in 1999-2000.

Watch Ukraine’s president deliver his stern remarks to the EU summit in the video below.

You applied sanctions. We are grateful. These are powerful steps but it was a little late.

If it had been preventative, Russia would not have gone to war.”

Whether Russia wins the ground war remains to be seen, but it is on course to lose at least one part of the economic war, according to some interesting research by analysts at the investment bank Natixis in Hong Kong.

It rates how each stock index has performed this year and it’s not surprising that Russia’s main bourse is ranked bottom of the class. It is followed by two of China’s main indices – the CSI300 and the Shenzhen SE composite – although they have also suffered amid uncertainty about Covid, and regulation in the tech and property sectors.

This year’s winner is Brazil’s Ibovespa index, a reflection of how resource-rich economies have prospered from the invasion-driven spike in commodity prices. Australia’s ASX200 is also in the black.

That 2022 trend is borne out in Friday trading where the Chinese markets are all being hammered again. The Hang Seng is off 2.20%, for example, and Shanghai’s CSI300 is down 0.56%. Sydney, by contrast, is up 0.26% while futures trade is indicating that European bourses will open down in a couple of hours’ time.

In a video message posted to his official Facebook account, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy shared his appearance at the EU summit where he thanked European Council members for putting sanctions on Russia but said it was “a little late.”

Zelenskiy said if the sanctions had been preventative, there was a chance Russia would not have gone to war. He told the council:

You applied sanctions. We are grateful. These are powerful steps but it was a little late.

If it had been preventative, Russia would not have gone to war …

You blocked Nord Stream 2. We are grateful to you. And rightly so. But it was also a little late. Because if it had been in time, Russia would not have created a gas crisis. At least there was a chance.

The Russian military does not see what dignity is. They do not know what conscience is. They do not understand why we value our freedom so much. This is what determines how the country will live.”

He said Russia has already destroyed 230 schools, 155 kindergartens and killed 128 children in Ukraine.

Whole cities, villages. Just to ashes. Nothing remains.

The Russian military killed journalists. Although they saw the inscription ‘Press’ on them. They may not have been taught to read. Only to kill.”

US President Joe Biden is today expected to announce increased shipments of liquefied natural gas to Europe, part of a long-term initiative to wean the continent off Russian energy after the invasion of Ukraine.

He plans to discuss the issue with Ursula von der Leyen, head of the European Union’s executive arm, shortly before leaving for Poland, the final leg of his four-day trip, Reuters reports.

Earlier this week, Von der Leyen said “we are aiming at having a commitment for additional supplies for the next two winters.” And Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser, recently told reporters that the administration wants to quickly “surge” gas to Europe.

Russian energy is a key source of income and political leverage for Moscow. Almost 40% of the European Union’s natural gas comes from Russia to heat homes, generate electricity and power industry.

Recent images from inside the Ukrainian southern city of Mariupol show long, winding lines of trapped citizens waiting to collect humanitarian aid.

Others show Russian troops driving armoured vehicles past local residents through the city.

We are getting more detail on the plan for US President Joe Biden’s visit to Poland later today.

AFP says Biden will travel to a town near the Polish-Ukrainian border on Friday, in an attempt to signal Western resolve against a Russian invasion that has increasingly turned to a grinding war of attrition.

Air Force One will jet into the eastern Polish town of Rzeszow – bringing the US president less than 80 kilometres (50 miles) from Ukrainian soil.

He will travel to Warsaw in the evening. In Poland, Biden will also receive a briefing on the dire humanitarian situation in Ukraine, which has seen more than 3.5 million people pour out of the country.

A quick take here from Russian ex-president, Dmitry Medvedev.

Medvedev said it is “foolish” to believe that western sanctions against Russian businesses could have any effect on the Moscow government, the former president and deputy head of security council was quoted as saying on Friday.

The sanctions will only consolidate the Russian society and not cause popular discontent with the authorities, Medvedev told Russia’s RIA news agency in an interview.

The west has imposed an array of sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine, but one month into the war, the Kremlin says it will continue the assault until it accomplishes its goals of Ukraine’s “demilitarisation and denazification”.

Some of the sanctions have specifically targeted billionaire businessmen believed to be close to President Vladimir Putin. Medvedev said:

Let us ask ourselves: can any of these major businessmen have even the tiniest quantum of influence of the position of the country’s leadership?

I openly tell you: no, no way.”

Hello it’s Samantha Lock with you as we continue our live coverage of the war in Ukraine.

It is now one month since Russia invaded Ukraine. If you’re just joining us, here is a comprehensive rundown on where the crisis currently stands:

• Russia and Ukraine exchanged prisoners in the first swap of soldiers since Moscow ordered troops into Ukraine one month ago, Ukraine’s vice-prime minister, Iryna Vereshchuk, said writing the first “full-fledged exchange of prisoners of war took place” where 10 “captured occupiers” were exchanged for 10 Ukrainian servicemen. In a recent update published to her official Telegram channel just before midnight local time, Vereshchuk said the humanitarian hostages taken in Mangush have been released.

• Ukraine accused Moscow of forcibly taking hundreds of thousands of civilians from shattered Ukrainian cities to Russia, where some may be used as “hostages” to pressure Kyiv to give up. Lyudmyla Denisova, Ukraine’s ombudsperson, said 402,000 people, including 84,000 children, have been taken against their will. The United Nations told the BBC that Ukrainians are being arbitrarily detained and subjected to enforced disappearances in Russian-controlled areas.

• Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskiy delivered a powerful late night nation address, suggesting Russia may not have invaded had it known the war would drag on for more than a month. “The 30th day. It’s been a month. Had Russia known that this was expecting them, I’m sure, they would have been scared to come here,” he said.

• Zelenskiy also shared his appearance at the EU summit where he thanked European Council members for putting sanctions on Russia but said it was “a little late”, in a video message posted to his official Facebook account.

• US president Joe Biden heads to Warsaw, Poland, today where he is expected to meet with experts on the humanitarian response and US troops stationed in Poland. On Saturday, he is to meet Polish counterpart Andrzej Duda to discuss “the humanitarian and human rights crisis” resulting from the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

• The UK’s ministry of defence said Ukraine is striking “high value targets” that is forcing Russian forces to divert resources to defend their supply lines. It cited the attacks on a landing ship and ammunition storage depots at Berdyansk as examples of valuable targets. “It is likely that the Ukrainians will continue to target logistical assets in Russian-held areas. This will force the Russian military to prioritise the defence of their supply chain” and reduce ability to carry out offensive operations.

• Ukrainian forces have been bolstered by the destruction of the major Russian landing ship as it brought in supplies to its troops. Dramatic pictures showed billowing fire and black smoke as the Orsk, docked in Berdyansk on the Azov Sea, was hit by Ukrainian ballistic missiles.

• The Ukrainian defence ministry said its troops had pushed back Russian forces from some areas around the capital, Kyiv. Russian troops did not have enough resources to push ahead with their offensive in Ukraine, Oleksander Motuzyanyk, Ukraine’s defence ministry spokesperson said.

• These accounts appear to be corroborated by a senior Pentagon official who said Russia is running out of precision guided munitions and it is more likely to rely on so-called dumb bombs and artillery. Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl said Russia is suffering high failure rates as high as 60% for some of its precision-guided missiles while its forces have taken heavy casualties and are low on supplies.

• Ukraine’s deputy prime minister said there were 40 buses waiting to take civilians out of Mariupol, but that Russian forces were not letting them through. There were meant to be seven humanitarian corridors open on Thursday – although Mariupol was not included among them.

• Ukraine has accused Moscow of forcibly taking 402,000 civilians, including 84,000 children, from Ukrainian cities to Russia – and raised concerns that they would be used as hostages. Russia corroborated the numbers but said the civilians has been evacuated willingly.

• Nato leaders have agreed to strengthen their defences in the east in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. About 40,000 troops have been placed on its eastern flank along with significant air and naval assets, and four new battlegroups will be sent to Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania.

• The US and its allies announced new sanctions on more than 400 Russian elites and institutions. Among those sanctioned were Russia’s lower house of parliament, the Duma, and 328 of its members. The US treasury department also issued guidance, warning that US authorities may impose sanctions on gold-related transactions involving Russia.

• Biden said China understands the economic consequences that would ensue if it provides help to Russia in its war with Ukraine and understands that its economic future is “much more closely tied to the west than it is to Russia”. The US Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl also said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has made it more of a strategic burden on China.

• G7 leaders said they are resolved to impose severe consequences on Russia and stand ready to apply additional measures “as required”. In a joint statement, they condemned Vladimir Putin’s “war of choice” and his “unjustifiable, unprovoked and illegal” aggression in Ukraine.

• The Biden administration and the European Union are expected to announce a major initiative to direct shipments of liquefied natural gas to Europe during the US president’s visit to Brussels this week, the Washington Post reported, citing three US officials familiar with the plan.

• Russia has been hit with 65 new sanctions by the UK, in a move the Foreign Office said was designed to target “key strategic industries and individuals”. Among those hit were six banks and a defence company that produces drones, as well as the Wagner Group, which Britain said had reportedly been tasked with assassinating the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

• The UK and allies will “ramp up” lethal aid to Ukraine, Boris Johnson said following a meeting of G7 leaders. The UK will send an additional 6,000 missiles and provide £25m in funding for Ukraine’s armed forces, he said, with kit provided “in the quantity and with the quality” needed by Ukraine to defend itself against “its bullying neighbour”.

• Asked about the Kremlin’s claim that he was the “most active participant in the race to be anti-Russian”, Boris Johnson said he was not “remotely anti-Russian”. “I think I’m probably the only prime minister in UK history to be called Boris,” he told reporters in Brussels. He also told BBC Newsnight that he’s not optimistic that Russian President Putin wants peace. “I’m not optimistic that Vladimir Putin really wants that [peace].I think he’s decided to double down and try to Groznify the great cities of Ukraine in the way that he’s always tried to do and I think that’s a tragic mistake.”

As usual, for any tips and feedback please contact me through Twitter or at samantha.lock@theguardian.com

The Guardian keeps you up to the minute on the crisis in Ukraine with a global perspective and from our team around the world and around the clock. Thank you for reading and please do stay tuned.