Republican Senator John Cornyn of Texas is gearing up for a runoff against state Attorney General Ken Paxton, sparking concerns among Republicans that the contentious primary could make the seat vulnerable to a Democratic challenge in the upcoming election.

According to the Associated Press, Cornyn currently leads Paxton in the Republican primary for the U.S. Senate. Meanwhile, Congressman Wesley Hunt, who faced criticism for his absenteeism during key votes on Capitol Hill, finished third, eliminating him from the race.

Despite Cornyn’s lead, neither he nor Paxton secured the over 50 percent needed to avoid a runoff. This sets the stage for a 12-week campaign battle that is anticipated to be both fierce and exhausting for the GOP.

Addressing supporters on Tuesday night, Cornyn described Paxton as a potential burden, stating, “Ken Paxton as the nominee would be a dead weight.”

Cornyn further warned, “Judgment day is coming for Ken Paxton.”

Cornyn’s unexpected finish in the lead came as a surprise to his campaign, which had forecasted that Paxton would take the top spot in the initial round of voting.

‘Paxton ahead of us within [margin of error] is most likely result,’ texted a Cornyn operative ahead of the voting on Tuesday.  

Now the question will be whether Paxton or Cornyn can convince President Donald Trump to grant his blessing in a campaign he’s stayed noticeably neutral on so far.  

Senator John Cornyn speaks during a Get Out The Vote campaign rally at the Schertz Civic Center Conference Hall on March 02, 2026 in Schertz, Texas

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton appears during a rally for his senatorial campaign at George’s Banquet Hall in Waco, Texas, on March 2, 2026

President Donald Trump did not endorse in the GOP primary election for the US Senate in Texas

With her then-husband Troy Duhon standing between them, Tracy Duhon (right), Paxton’s reported mistress, and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (left) pose for a photo at the Kentucky Derby in May 2024

Speaking to a crowd of his own supporters Tuesday, Paxton invoked his last two state-wide victories that had come on the backs of besting previous runoff victories.

Paxton also invoked Texas Senator Ted Cruz several times in his speech, urging Texans to ‘send a second conservative Senator’ to Washington, DC. Paxton added that Cruz’s own campaign in 2012 was the last time a Texas Senate race went to a runoff.

‘Texas is not for sale,’ Paxton said, referencing Cornyn’s massive spending advantage. 

Cornyn’s campaign spent $69 million – a gigantic amount – compared to just $5 million spent by Paxton’s camp, a warning sign that the incumbent’s healthy cash reserves haven’t been overwhelmingly decisive.

Paxton qualified for the runoff despite being indicted, impeached, and hit with brutal charges of infidelity. 

The Daily Mail exclusively revealed Paxton was secretly seeing a married Christian influencer behind the backs of both their partners — with multiple sources confirming the woman was mother-of-seven Tracy Duhon, 57, also an author.

When asked back then about Duhon being his mistress, Paxton – whose wife filed for divorce on ‘biblical grounds’ last year – did not address the claim but attacked the Daily Mail and vowed to take on the ‘deranged radical Left’ with Trump.

Cornyn released a commercial about the cheating allegations, claiming that ‘crooked Ken Paxton cheated on his wife’ and is ‘wrecking another home, sleeping around with a married mother of seven.’

But Cornyn’s own baggage of choosing to defy Trump appeared to weigh more heavily on voters’ minds.  

In January of 2021, Cornyn did not object to certifying President Donald Trump’s defeat in the 2020 election, ‘based on unproven allegations,’ and in 2023 he signaled that Trump couldn’t win a 2024 general election, noting that Trump’s time had ‘passed him by.’

Trump hasn’t forgotten and stayed on the sidelines, allowing Paxton his opening.  

A pro-Cornyn PAC was accused last summer of manipulating audio from a 2019 Trump rally to make it seem like the president recently endorsed the senator.

In Trump’s 2019 rally footage, the President praises both Cornyn and Senator Ted Cruz for their work delivering on his agenda in Washington.

In the allegedly doctored footage, the pro-Cornyn super PAC Texans for a Conservative Majority appears to have clipped the ‘s’ from the end of Senators, as well as the reference to Cruz during Trump’s rally six years ago.

Paxton has the backing of Turning Point USA’s political arm, whose endorsement ignited a firestorm.

TP Action’s endorsement of Paxton was viewed as a direct assault on the legacy of TPUSA founder Charlie Kirk, who preached Judeo-Christian values and encouraged young conservatives to get married and have children.

Outside of his personal battles, Paxton has also been accused of corruption on several occasions. He was impeached over claims of bribery, abuse of office, and corruption, but later acquitted. He has never been convicted of a crime. 

Since 2019, Cornyn has cast several votes in which he has split with the majority of his GOP colleagues, adding to accusations that he is an RINO, or Republican in name only.

Despite touting a voting record 99 per cent in line with Trump, Cornyn has few friends among Washington’s conservative establishment. 

Heritage Action rates his votes in the current Congressional session at just 35 per cent — barely half his lifetime score of 64 percent. The American Conservative Union tells a similar story: a lifetime score of 87, against a current ranking of 77.

In 2022, Cornyn was one of 15 Republican senators who crossed the aisle to give President Biden a signature legislative win — the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act — under intense public pressure following the Uvalde school shooting in his home state. 

Now these records will be poured over from now until late May, leaving the Republican Party divided.

Many GOP operatives fear that a Paxton victory in May could make the seat vulnerable to the Democrats in November.

It would also mean heavy GOP financial investment to keep a seat in a ruby red state. 

‘If we have to spend money in Texas, then we’re diverting,’ said former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on NBC News, lamenting a prolonged primary campaign. 

The Texas runoff is set for March 26.