Donald Trump, the former President, has solidified his position as the frontrunner in the Daily Mail’s election forecast, now achieving his strongest likelihood so far of defeating Kamala Harris in the upcoming November election.
The shift in momentum can largely be attributed to a favorable survey in the pivotal battleground state of Michigan, where Trump holds a slender one-point advantage over his Democratic rival. This has propelled him to an almost 18-point overall lead, marking a two-point increase from the previous week.
Nevertheless, as the campaign enters its final, crucial weeks, the outcome remains uncertain, with plenty of room for shifts in voter sentiment.
Currently, Trump stands at a 58.8 percent chance of winning, while Harris trails with 41.1 percent, indicating a contest still within the realm of possibility for both candidates.
According to the latest polling figures, Trump is projected to secure 302 electoral college votes compared to Harris’ 236, marking his most significant lead yet in this election cycle.
Data scientist Callum Hunter from J.L. Partners, who is responsible for analyzing these trends, remarked in his latest report, “The momentum continues to work against Harris. Trump’s probability of winning has risen by two points since last week.”
‘The win probability gap has now widened to nearly 18 points.
‘The fact that Michigan has moved into the Trump camp is significant and a major blow to the Harris campaign.
‘New polls this week may temper this increasingly good news for Trump.’
The model weighs all the latest polling data, along with 80 years of election results and economic statistics to deliver each candidate’s chances of winning in the electoral college.
Overall, it predicts that Harris has a much better chance of winning the popular vote (as Democrats have done in seven of the last eight elections).
At the same time, a string of recent polls have shown critical swing states edging towards the former president.
The most crucial of those may be a Mitchell Research and Communications poll for Michigan News Source, which showed Trump overtaking Harris in a head-to-head match-up by one point.
Former President Donald Trump has his biggest lead yet over Vice President Kamala Harris in our DailyMail.com/J.L. Partners election model, which is updated twice a week
If all the other third-party candidates are included they finish neck-and-neck on 48 percent each.
Last week, Michigan was seen as a toss-up state by our model. The new poll edges it towards Trump, and he wins it in 50.1 percent of simulations.
Among other states, Arizona moves from ‘lean Trump’ to ‘likely Trump,’ and North Carolina has done the same, with it falling to the former president in 70.3 percent of simulations.
At the same time, a New York Times/Siena College poll published Monday showed Harris regaining a national lead over Trump. That could change things in our model once those data are factored in.
Trump was in Michigan and Wisconsin at the end of last week and is due to campaign in Pennsylvania Wednesday.
Harris was also in Michigan last week and will hit up Nevada and Arizona later this week.
